Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Not only do we have NBA playoff basketball, but we also have an early start time.
For someone like me who misses the Bubble because the schedule had game starting in the early afternoon, it is thrilling to see the NBA experiment with earlier start times. That means we can watch basketball sooner and have less time when games overlap. I’m all for flipping back and forth to avoid commercials, but in the postseason I want to lock in on one game at a time.
These are all good things and I hope the league continues to try this. I know people still have jobs that require them to go to work, but maybe companies will learn to respect people’s right to watch NBA basketball and allow their employees to leave early on days games start in the afternoon. Let’s see if we can win that battle.
For now, let’s go through each game, see what we can expect, and find some value in the betting markets.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
Current Line – Pacers -6, 223.5
My Projection – Pacers 112, Bucks 107
Key Injuries – Giannis Antetokounmpo is out. Khris Middleton is questionable.
Things are getting worse for the Milwaukee Bucks. They were able to win game one without Giannis Antetokounmpo as the Pacers showed their playoff inexperience, but Milwaukee followed that up with a 15-point loss in Game 2 and now might be without Khris Middleton. That leaves Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and not much else in the way of good NBA players. Lillard is a true star and can win games on his own, but it’s going to be hard for him to win three more without some help. The Pacers have taken homecourt, are favored Friday and will be favored in Game 4. Unless the Bucks can speed up Giannis’ recovery or keep Middleton on the court then they are in trouble. Indiana is poised to make the second round for the first time since the 2013-14 season.
The Pacers were 1.5-point favorites in Game 1, the Bucks were 1-point favorites in Game 2 and the Pacers are now six-point favorites here. That’s a seven-point adjustment from the last game. Most of that change, I’d say 5.5-6 points, is due to the change in venue. Homecourt is worth more in the playoffs than the regular season. The remaining point or so of the adjustment is because of Middleton’s status. That all sounds about right to me and puts the market within one point of my projection. I don’t see any value on the side, but I’m going to be the total for a second consecutive game.
Game one closed with a total of 230 points which was adjusted way down to 223.5 in Game 2. Friday’s total remains at 223.5, which looks about 3.5 points too high to me. Game 2 finished with 233 points thanks to some great shooting from both teams. They each shot 40%-plus, which was the best three-point shooting performance by both teams in the games they’ve played against each other this season. The pace dropped down to just below 94 in that game, and I expect it to be that slow again if not slower. If the pace stays at 96 or lower and the shooting rates regress to each team’s average, I don’t expect there to be 220 points in this game let alone the 223.5 points currently in the market. Give me the under and let’s get ready to cheer for misses.
Bet
Milwaukee Bucks/Indiana Pacers Under 223.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
Current Line – Mavericks -4.5, 212.5
My Projection – Mavericks 110, Clippers 104
Key Injuries – Tim Hardaway Jr. is out. Kawhi Leonard and Daniel Gafford are questionable.
This has been a cagey matchup so far. The pace was 92 in Game 1 and 89 in Game 2, which are two of the slowest games in the postseason so far. One team is shooting 41% from the field, the other 40%. The team that won the possession battle (offensive rebound differential + turnover differential) lost both games. The Clippers won Game 1 without their best player in Kawhi Leonard and lost Game 2. The Mavericks were close to being down 0-2 but were able to steal homecourt advantage thanks to a strong fourth quarter in Game 2. Can Kawhi play himself back into shape after missing several weeks? Will the Mavericks hold serve at home and head back to Los Angeles with a chance to win the series? It’s a series that still has plenty of questions left to be answered.
Dallas was favored by 3.5 points in the first game. Upon Kawhi’s return, the spread was adjusted to make Los Angeles a one-point favorite. If that adjustment for Kawhi’s return seems small to you, remember it was known that he would not be 100% for the game. The teams are now playing in Dallas and the Mavericks are 4.5-point favorites tonight. I think the change from game two to three is a combination of giving Dallas credit for homecourt and Kawhi being a little healthier which helps Los Angeles. All in all, I think the current odds are more right than they are wrong. I lean to the Mavericks, but it’s not a big enough edge to bet.
The total started at 221, dropped to 217 for Game 2, and is all the way down to 212.5. I already mentioned how slow the pace has been, but there should be some positive regression in shooting. Making shots at a higher rate, even just below their season averages, would get us close to the current total. The big question is whether or not the pace will continue to be so slow. The Mavericks were one of the fastest teams in the NBA this season and the Clippers were middle of the pack. I tend to think the pace will quicken with the Mavericks at home, but that’s just a gut feeling. My model projects 214 points, which is over the current total but by only 1.5 points. I’ll pass on the total as well.
Bets
None
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
Current Line – Suns -5, 207.5
My Projection – Suns 105, Timberwolves 102
Key Injuries – Grayson Allen and Kyle Anderson are questionable.
Things are not looking bright for the Suns. They were underdogs in the first two games, but by just a few points, and they lost convincingly. Minnesota won Game 1 by 25 on the strength of their rebounding and ability to score in the paint. Phoenix did better at preventing both in Game 2, but still lost by 12. Kevin Durant shot the ball just a few times in the fourth quarter of the last game in a bizarre performance. The Suns lost by 20 points when Durant played in Game 1 and by 24 points when he played in Game 2. That needs to change quickly and sharply if Phoenix wants to win some games. There’s really nothing but good things to say about Minnesota. The Timberwolves were just 9-of-32 from three in Game 2. Outside of that, they have been the better and there’s little to no reason to expect that change.
Minnesota closed both of the first games as three-point favorites and covered comfortably. Eight points is a big adjustment. At least six of those points are because we’re playing in Phoenix. The other two points are likely attributed to the Suns being down two games. Teams that host game three of a series and have yet to win a game often perform much better. Qualitatively, the team that has won two games in a row tends to relax, and the team that needs to win brings out all the stops. Over the last two seasons, teams down 0-2 and hosting game three of a series are close to .500 against the spread which tells me the market is building this into their lines. In this case, I think the books have given the Suns two points for that motivational edge. My model agrees with the six points for the change in location but doesn’t agree with that other two points of the adjustment. Two points is an edge, just not a big enough one to bet.
Like we’ve seen in just about every series, the totals continue to fall. Game 1 closed at 213.5, Game 2 closed at 211.5, and we’re down to 207.5 here. The pace has been slow, but not terribly slow and offensive efficiency is down a little from the regular season averages for both teams. Perhaps the shooting will pick up, but I expect the pace to get even slower. The Suns don’t push the ball and will likely grind down each possession in a close to must-win game for them. My projection is basically the same as the market, so no wagers for me here either.
Bets
None
