Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s Game 3 TNT Thursday in the first round of the NBA playoffs. All three home teams are down two games to none in their series.
If you go back far enough, betting on teams down two games, and hosting Game 3 has been a profitable angle. The team that won the first two games often have a down performance and the role players for the team that lost the first two games play better at home. Unfortunately, the NBA betting markets are efficient and adjust for things like this. If you look at the last two seasons, teams down 0-2 and at home for Game 3 are 6-6-1 against the spread. It still creates an interesting dynamic for the games, but we’ll have to find value in other ways.
Let’s go through each game, understand the landscape, and hopefully some wagers worth our money.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic
Current Line – Magic -2.5, 201
My Projection – Magic 99, Cavaliers 97
Key Injuries – Dean Wade is out.
The Cavaliers failed to score 100 points either of the first two games, but the Magic failed to score 90 and lost both matchups. Cleveland seems to have taken to hear the lessons they learned in last year’s playoffs, while Orlando is showing their inexperience. Young teams like the Magic generally struggle in their first playoffs, which is exactly what we’ve seen so far. Paolo Banchero is playing well, and Gary Harris showed signs of life in Game 2. That’s about all the good things you can say about the Magic so far. Franz Wagner is being left open on the perimeter which shrinks the floor and makes it harder for him to be a positive offensively. Jalen Suggs is 6-of-21 from the field through two games. As a team, Orlando is shooting 34% from the field and 23% from deep. Maybe the comfy confines of their homecourt will turn things around, but the Cavaliers have been the much better team so far.
Cleveland closed as 5.5-point favorites in the first two games, and the total was 206 points, plus or minus a half a point. The books moved the spread eight points, which feels about right. Most of that adjustment is for the move to Orlando and the rest is tied to the historical bump in performance we usually see from teams that lose the first two games of a series. I’d say six points of the adjustment was for the change in venue and the other two points for the situation. The total, however, was not adjusted down far enough.
I bet the under in the first two games and am going to bet it again. I make the total 196 points and the market is offering us 201 points. Neither of these teams have efficient offenses. The Cavaliers rely on Donovan Mitchell for most of their scoring and the Magic know that. Mitchell can still carry the load for Cleveland, but he’s not going to be able to drag them to 100+ points barring some crazy shooting efficiency. Banchero is doing his best, but is not yet talented enough to carry Orlando’s offense. Maybe he rest of the Magic roster will find a way to help him. I’m not counting on that and will continue to believe the total should start with a one and not a two. Let’s go under again.
Bet
Cleveland Cavaliers/Orlando Magic Under 201 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Current Line – 76ers -5.5, 204
My Projection – 76ers 105, Knicks 101
Key Injuries – Joel Embiid, Mitchell Robinson and De’Anthony Melton are questionable.
The 76ers cleaned up their offensive rebounding problem from Game 1 for about 47 minutes of Game 2. In the last minute of that game, Philadelphia gave up a few offensive rebounds that led to two made three-pointers by New York to give the Knicks an improbable late comeback victory. Joel Embiid managed to avoid reaggravating his knee injury, but he still looks less than 100%. Jaylen Brunson is healthy, which makes his shooting struggles odd. The guard has made only 29% of his field goal attempts and 16% of his three-point attempts. The Knicks must feel great having won two games with such poor performance from their star player. If Brunson can bounce back in Philadelphia, New York could have a chance to win this series in Madison Square Garden in game five. If Brunson continues to struggle, the 76ers could have the series tied and a lot of confidence going into game five. A lot hangs in the balance.
The books had the Knicks favored by 4.5 points in both Games 1 and 2. The total for Game 1 was 208, Game 2 dropped to 206.5, and now we’re down a few more points at 204 for Thursday, which makes sense given the pace in the first two games. The adjustment to spread is 10 points. I think at least seven of those points are due to the change in venue, so what about the other three points? Both teams have had a two-day break to recover and scheme for game three. The rest helps the 76ers more than the Knicks and I think it’s fair to expect Embiid to have more energy late. It also seems that Tyrese Maxey is over whatever illness he had in game two. Those boosts are worth at least a point or two. The rest is likely tied to the added motivation of Philadelphia down two games at home off a heartbreaking loss.
I was hoping to back the 76ers early, but they are 2.5-point favorites in the first quarter, and I would make that spread only two. My model is two points over the current total. which is an edge, but a small one and not a bet I’m interested in making. If the game is close, we’ll see pace slow to a crawl late. If the 76ers can grab a big lead early, they can likely keep the Knicks from scoring late. Tom Thibodeau isn’t know for resting his players ever, but I don’t expect him to push his guys to 40-plus minutes if Philadelphia can build a 15sh point lead early in the fourth quarter. I show a little value on the Knicks on the spread, but that’s also not a large enough edge to play. It looks like the books did a good job with this game, so I’ll pass.
Bet
None
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
Current Line – Lakers -1, 216.5
My Projection – Nuggets 113, Lakers 112
Key Injuries – Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood are out.
The Nuggets beat the Lakers for the 10th consecutive time in Game 2 thanks to a dominating fourth quarter. The Lakers went into the final frame with a 10-point lead but lost the game by two at the buzzer. The problem for Los Angeles in Game 2 was a problem they also had in Game 1. Rui Hachimura and Spencer Dinwiddie were -22 points in their playing time in Game 1, -16 points in Game 2. In the playoffs, role players get attacked, and their weaknesses are exploited quickly. Neither Hachimura nor Dinwiddie can contribute on both ends of the floor. Whether it be on defense or offense, the Nuggets have found ways to attack both players with success. Darvin Ham has to figure out how to use those two players differently or find players that can fill their minutes without being such big negatives. Unless he does, Denver’s win streak is likely to continue.
The odds for Game 2 closed with the Nuggets as seven-point favorites with a total of 223.5. That was basically the same spread as game one and the total was 3.5 points higher in the first matchup. Both of those games went well under their totals, so the continued adjustment down makes sense. Efficiency was down in Game 2, but pace was the same so even if the efficiency were better the result still would have been under the total. The spread has been adjusted eight points, which seems like a lot until you start to break it down into pieces. Denver is one of the better homecourt advantages in the league and Los Angeles has a pretty good homecourt edge themselves. I think at least six, if not more, points of that adjustment are due to the change in venue. The extra point or two is due to the perceived motivation edge of the Lakers being down 2-0 in the series.
All these odds look right to me, and I understand what caused them to change from game to game. My gut says to keep playing unders and backing the Nuggets in the second half. My brain and model don’t agree with those sentiments. I don’t see any value in these odds, so no bets.
Bet
None
