Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops: Playoff Series Edition! The NBA postseason is finally here, and that brings another opportunity to find value in the betting markets. Not only do we have games to bet on, but also series prices, series props and other futures.
The betting menus are big which means there is more opportunity to make some good wagers. Let’s dive into this series by looking at the season’s head-to-head matchups, review key injuries that require our attention, and pick a winner and place some bets.
Sign up for an FTN subscription today!
Minnesota Timberwolves (3) vs. Phoenix Suns (6)
Season Head-to-Head Matchups
Key Injuries to Watch
Karl-Anthony Towns
Minnesota’s scoring big man just recently returned from lateral meniscus tear in his left knee. Karl-Anthony Towns played 28 and 29 minutes in the Timberwolves’ last two games. He didn’t play very well, but it was good to see him back on the court. Without KAT, Minnesota’s scoring options become very thin. The playoffs require teams to have at least two guys who can create shots and KAT is the only option for the Timberwolves after Anthony Edwards. KAT looks to be healthy, but keep an eye on his status in case he reaggravates the injury or in shape to play 35-plus minutes.
Who’s Going to Win the Series?
Series Price: Suns -115, Timberwolves -105
This will be a fun matchup because we have strength on strength and weakness on weakness. Minnesota has the best defense in the NBA and the Suns have one of the most efficient and best crunch time offenses in the NBA. The Timberwolves have size and athleticism at every position. Rudy Gobert is the overwhelming favorite for defensive player of the year. Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards, when he tries, are two of the best perimeter defenders in the league. They have to face Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal who can all create their own shot and create space for others to shoot. You can see above that Phoenix’s offense won them all three of their head-to-head games this season. Can Minnesota reverse that dynamic or will the Suns continue to shine late in games?
Offensively, the Timberwolves have been in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency, but they have struggled to score late in games. Defense tightens up late in games and things will be even more difficult in a playoff series as opponents have time to scheme. Edwards has been great, but defenses know they can focus their attention on him and leave the others. Karl-Anthony Towns’ presence can change that dynamic. Minnesota will need KAT to create against a less than great Phoenix defense. The Suns have improved on that end thanks to one of the best defensive rebounding rates since the All-Star break. Teams are not getting extra possessions against Phoenix, but they’ve been efficient in the possessions they do get. Can Phoenix play enough defense to stay ahead of Minnesota?
It’s going to be a very tight series and I can see it breaking either way, but I make the Suns favorites at -140 for the series. The NBA playoffs often come down to who has the best player, who has the best coach, and who can win high pressure, late game situations. Anthony Edwards could be the best player in this series, but more often than not it will be Kevin Durant or Devin Booker. I think Chris Finch is a better coach than Frank Vogel in an impactful but not huge way. When it comes to the end game, this is where I think the Suns win the series. Minnesota is going to need to carry and hold onto leads late in games because they don’t have the scoring to make up a deficit. Phoenix is the road team which means they host game 6 and I think they close it out there, if not sooner. I’ll be the Suns -1.5 games in the series.
Bet
- Phoenix Suns Series Spread -1.5 Games (+150 DraftKings Sportsbook), 1U
