NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Pacers vs. Knicks

Welcome to Hoops with Noops: Playoff Series Edition! The postseason is here, and that brings another opportunity to find value in the betting markets. Not only do we have games to bet on, but also series prices, series props and other futures.

The betting menus are big, which means there is more opportunity to make some good wagers. Let’s dive into this series by looking at the season’s head-to-head matchups, review key injuries that require our attention, and pick a winner and place some bets.

New York Knicks (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (6)

Season Head-to-Head Matchups

Key Injuries to Watch

In a refreshing change of pace for the NBA, the injury report is clean for both teams. Bojan Bogdanovic is out for the rest of the season, but he wasn’t playing much for the Knicks anyway. At this moment in time, neither team is worried about the availability of their stars or even their rotation players.

Who’s Going to Win the Series?

Series Price: Knicks -250, Pacers +200

The Pacers took advantage of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence and beat the higher-seeded Bucks in six games in the first round. It was a rough series for Milwaukee, who was without Giannis for every game and without Damian Lillard for a few games. The Bucks were still able to win two games and took a third into overtime. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner led the way for Indiana. They were the team’s top scorers and did so efficiently. Tyrese Haliburton had some big moments but mostly struggled in his first playoff series. He shot 43% from the field and 29% from three-point range. Haliburton hasn’t missed any games or been listed on the injury report despite not looking 100% for several weeks. The Pacers were able to win in round one without their best player playing his best. They’ll need Haliburton to raise his level if Indiana wants to advance any further in the postseason.

The Knicks beat the 76ers in six very competitive games. Jalen Brunson carried the offense almost single-handedly and didn’t shy away from big moments late in games. The rest of the team played tenacious defense and attacked the glass on offense aggressively. They averaged four more offensive rebounds per game than their opponents and those extra possessions were often enough to swing games. New York showed the value of their flexible roster full of players that love to play with passionate intensity and physicality. They every play difficult for their opponents forcing mistakes and capitalizing on those errors. That kind of energy for 48 minutes overwhelms opponents who struggle to score and defend late while the Knicks are still grinding. There are still concerns about New York’s ability score when Brunson is struggling, but everything else is in place for the Knicks to keep winning in the playoffs.

When handicapping any playoff series I start by looking at three things. First, which can be the best player in the series? Brunson is the best player on either team by some margin. Haliburton or Siakam might be able to peak for a game and eclipse Brunson, but the Knicks have the best guy on the court. Second, which team has the best coach? With all due respect to Rick Carlisle, who has had a wonderful career, Tom Thibodeau is the better coach. Thibs gets the most out of his players and has improved in his in-game coaching. Third, which team has the most postseason experience and cohesion throughout their roster? There is not much postseason experience on either side. Siakam and Donte DiVincenzo have been a few series, but the rest of the group is making their first playoff run. Put it all together and I like the Knicks quite a bit in this matchup.

New York has the best player, the best coach, and their aggressive rebounding and defense will allow them to control the pace and style of this series. Indiana wants to play quickly, take advantage of fastbreak chances, and shoot threes whenever possible. The Knicks protect the ball, slow teams down on fastbreaks, and force players off the three-point line. The Pacers are the younger team and I think getting too much credit for beating a Bucks team that was not good. New York just played one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and controlled things most of the way. I think the Knicks win this series and do so quickly. I’ll bet on New York -2.5 games, meaning we win if the Knicks win in five games or less.

Bets

• New York Knicks Series Spread -2.5 Games (+165, DraftKings Sportsbook), 1U