Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops: Playoff Series Edition! The NBA postseason is finally here, and that brings another opportunity to find value in the betting markets. Not only do we have games to bet on, but also series prices, series props and other futures.
The betting menus are big, which means there is more opportunity to make some good wagers. Let’s dive into this series by looking at the season’s head-to-head matchups, review key injuries that require our attention, and pick a winner and place some bets.
Dallas Mavericks (5) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (4)
Season Head-to-Head Matchups
Key Injuries to Watch
Kawhi Leonard
The best player on the Clippers has missed the last two weeks with inflammation in his left knee. He has torn multiple ligaments in that knee and it’s always an area of concern for the former Finals MVP. Kawhi has also dealt with back spasms off and on for the last month. He is the best player on the Clippers and the key to them winning in the playoffs. Don’t bet a Clippers game until you know Kawhi’s status.
James Harden
He had a shoulder problem a few weeks ago and is now dealing with a foot injury. Los Angeles can win this series without Harden, but it’s going to be difficult, and they need Harden if they want to make the NBA Finals.
Dereck Lively
His knee kept him out of the last two weeks of the season. Daniel Gafford is the starter, but Lively has been important off the bench. With both centers, Dallas can always keep a good rebounder and good pick-and-roll partner on the floor at all times. The Mavericks don’t need Lively to win, but he makes them a better team.
Who’s Going to Win the Series?
Series Price: Mavericks -115, Clippers -105
Which version of the Clippers will play in this season? Will it be the team that was arguably the best in the league in December and January? Will it be the team that has looked just better than average since mid-February? I honestly don’t know but I do know it all hinges on the health of Kawhi Leonard. He is their best player and the only person on the roster who can be the best guy in a series. When healthy, Los Angeles has just about everything you’d want from a playoff team. They have a star, plenty of experienced veterans, lineup flexibility, and a great coach. They could make the NBA Finals or lose this series quickly. It’s very difficult to tell.
The Mavericks finished the season playing great basketball. They won 16 of their last 20 games, and two of the losses were games that their stars didn’t play to rest for the playoffs. Luka Doncic is an MVP candidate, Kyrie Irving is playing great basketball, they have a plethora of wings to put around them, and good centers to finish at the rim and protect the rim. The Mavericks can win the Western Conference and I’m bullish about their chances to do that. As the 5 seed, they won’t have to play the Denver Nuggets until the Western Conference Finals. I like Dallas to win this series and win the next series against the Oklahoma City Thunder or the 8 seed.
So, what’s the best way to back the Mavericks? I think betting on them to win this series is a perfectly fine idea, but I think we can do better. The Los Angeles Clippers could be the best team Dallas faces until the Western Conference Finals. If Kawhi Leonard is healthy, the Clippers should be the favorites. Instead of risking my money at -115 in a series the Mavericks might lose, I’m going to bet them to win the Western Conference. They are currently +800 to win the West, which puts them behind the Clippers and Thunder. I like that bet quite a bit.
Bet
- Dallas Mavericks to win the Western Conference (+800, DraftKings Sportsbook), 1U
