Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We have a solid two-game slate of NBA games Tuesday, with the Boston Celtics taking on the Philadelphia 76ers back home in Beantown and the Nuggets traveling back home to take on the Phoenix Suns. Both series are tied at 2-2, with the Nuggets and Celtics having the upper hand with two home games remaining if either series goes to seven games.
We do have a few edges in our NBA Player Prop Model on top of what I mention here. If you do not have a subscription already, you can take advantage of our free three day trial of FTNBets by clicking on this link. For now though, here are my three best NBA bets for Tuesday.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Philadelphia 76ers +7.5
I know the Celtics are the better team on paper, but the way James Harden has been playing is impressive. A spread of 7.5 seems very high for a series that is basically even. The 76ers won a game in Boston without Joel Embiid, and even at less than 100%, Embiid is still more of a positive for the 76ers than a negative. Do I think the 76ers win outright? Probably not, but at +7.5 they basically just need to not get blown out here. We have this as over a 10% edge in our NBA betting model, so I’m looking to get down on it.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Michael Porter Over 6.5 Rebounds
I do not get this line at all. Michael Porter had double-digit rebounds each of the last two games. More importantly, he played 37 and 41 minutes in those two games. Porter averaged just under 6 rebounds in 30 minutes of action during the regular season. If you are going to see him play 20-25% more minutes, like he did the last two games, then you would expect those numbers to jump by 20-25% and get him up to at least 7.5 or more. At 6.5 for his prop, it feels a bit light given his playing time this series and what he has produced. What has he produced? Back-to-back double-doubles. I don’t even hate a sprinkle on that DD prop as well.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Joel Embiid Over 28.5 Points
Joel Embiid has gone over this in each of the last two games with 30 and 34. The first game back he was a little rusty, but he dominated at home in Philly for Games 3 and 4. I know he is listed as questionable, but he played 39 and 46 minutes the last two games. I cannot see him sitting out a Game 5 in a 2-2 series and if he plays, he’s going to be on the court for as many minutes as he can handle, barring an injury.
