Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Celtics managed to extend the Eastern Conference Finals by taking Game 4 from the Heat in Miami Tuesday. Now the series moves back to Boston. The Celtics are big favorites here, but the NBA model does not see much of an edge in the spread or total markets. We do have a few edges in the NBA Player Prop markets, and that is where Thursday’s NBA Best Bets come from. To get current prices on every betting market from our sportsbook partners, check out the FTNBets Prop Shop.
Best NBA Playoff Points Prop Bets
Robert Williams Over 6.5 Points
Has Robert Williams played well in this series? No, but he’s still managed to score at least seven points and take five shots or more in every game of this series. Williams is only playing a little over 20 minutes per night, but that has been all he has needed to average over 10 points per game in this series. Williams shoots an insanely high percentage, because all of his shots are rolls to the basket for dunks or easy layups. Add in an occasional offensive rebound or two against an undersized front court and he’s been great in his limited opportunities. His rebounding has been erratic in this series, but on the offensive end he’s getting easy opportunities and converting with his time on the floor.
Caleb Martin Over 12.5 Points
The value in this series is not really on the big scorers we all know about. It has been easier to pick off some of the secondary pieces seeing bigger roles. Caleb Martin is another guy who easily fits into that narrative. He has played 30, 32, 35 and 35 minutes in the four games of this series. He’s scored at least 15 points in each of those games, with a high of 25 and an average of 18.5. He’s fired up at least five 3-pointers in each game and knocked down twelve of them. Martin is getting more minutes and taking more shots than he did during the regular season, and the prop number has not caught up to his role against the Celtics.
Grant Williams Over 6.5 Points
Some books have already moved this up to 7.5 on Grant Williams points. In the last three games, he has played 26, 29 and 29 minutes against the Heat. He has scored at least 9 points in each of those games. This number was as low as 5.5 on the last one at even money, so the odds are starting to catch up. I still feel we have about another point to go as 7.5/8.5 should be the range he is in. Anything below that is worth a play.
