NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
The Denver Nuggets anxiously await their NBA Finals opponent. The Miami Heat have a chance to punch their ticket at home Tuesday with a win against the Boston Celtics. Miami was a big underdog coming into this series but currently have a 3-0 lead on the higher-seeded team. After being favored in each game of the series so far, the Celtics are now the underdog for the first time. We will discuss that more later.
The last game got ugly early and saw many of the key pieces for both teams play a few less minutes than normal. I doubt we see the Celtics waive a white flag, as a loss would send them packing. Keep that in mind when you look at the game logs as that last game was a disaster and not exactly the way anyone envisions the Celtics playing. Here are my three NBA best bets for Tuesday.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Boston Celtics +2
The Celtics are +1.5 on most books at standard -110 juice. PointsBet gives us an extra half-point at +2. Our FTN NBA betting model has the Celtics winning this game outright, but at only +105 I would rather take the protection of the full +2 for the 15 basis points I have to give up. This series is not like the Lakers and Nuggets. The Nuggets were the better team in that one and swept it 4-0. I still believe the Celtics are the better team here, but they have run into a team playing incredibly well together. Jimmy Butler is a legit superstar, but the Heat are not about one player and that is what makes them dangerous. The Celtics had been favored in every game of this series up until now. Last game closed with the Celtics as four-point favorites, so the move here is massive with them as +2 underdogs. That is why we have such a big edge and why the Celtics are the side I want to be on in this one.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets
Caleb Martin Over 11.5 Points
Caleb Martin has had a great series so far. He has scored 15, 25 and 18 points. The best part about t is that the Heat need his perimeter defense to match up with the slew of guard type players the Celtics can throw at them. That is why you see him playing 30 minutes or more in every game of this series. Last series he was averaging just 28 vs. the 32-plus minutes per game he is seeing against the Celtics. Martin has also taken at least 11 field goal attempts in every game this series. He saw over 10 just once against the Celtics. He’s been left open from deep and made Boston pay. He has hit an outstanding 10-of-21 shots from behind the arc in this series. I doubt he keeps knocking them down at that rate, but he has confidence and is taking more shots. He only needs 12 to cash this, and so far he’s averaged over 19 in the series. Even if he comes back to earth and shoots a normal percentage from deep, that still puts him over the 12 we need.
Grant Williams Over 4.5 Points
Grant Williams played just 26 and 29 minutes in the last two games for the Celtics. He scored 9 and 12 points. He also probably cost the Celtics a game by pissing off Jimmy Butler, but the point here is that he’s been on the court a ton for a guy with a scoring prop under five points. The Celtics have been going with a smaller lineup against the Heat recently and that gives Williams more court time. He’s a fourth or fifth option in this offense at best, but if he is playing over half the game, that should lead to 5-7 shots and a good chance to cash his over.
