Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Thursday brings us Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets were up big in Game 1 before opening the door to allow the Lakers to storm back and make it interesting. Denver still held on to win by 6, much to the disappointment of those who backed them at -6.5. The spread dropped down to -5.5 because of that finish, but I still lean heavy to the Denver side of this one. They are the better team, but there is not much value in that spread market.
We do have a few places in the prop market where we can find some value and that is where my NBA best bets come from for Thursday.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Michael Porter Over 6.5 Rebounds
Michael Porter keeps cashing this rebound total. We played it last game at over 5.5 juiced up, and he cashed it in the first half. When his minutes are high, he’s cruising by this number. We project him for over seven rebounds again here. In four of the last five games, Porter has had 8 or more rebounds. The only game he did not was the 25-point blowout of the Suns, where he saw just 24 minutes of action. His minutes are up and that has increased his production across the board. I expect this to continue and still think we have value even though the prop is slightly higher at 6.5.
Best NBA Steals Prop Bet
Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Steals
We had Anthony Davis blocks last game and missed by 0.5 because the scorekeeper kept giving him steals. Twitter was furious when the replays showed they were clearly blocks, but there is no need to harp on the past. The key takeaway is that the score keeper in Denver is going to count some of those attempted lobs as steals and not blocks, so that should continue to boost that number for Anthony Davis. If so, the 1.5 steals seems a bit low for a guy with long arms that can tip and change the trajectory of passes thrown.
Best NBA 3-Point Prop Bet
Jamal Murray Over 2.5 3-Pointers
Jamal Murray has played 31 postseason games over the last two years, and he’s averaged over three made 3-pointers per game in this postseason and the last one. He is taking over 7 3-pointers per game during this stretch. Murray knocked down four in the first game on 8 attempts. The Nuggets starters are all seeing big minutes in the playoffs as well, so it makes sense the attempts and makes are slightly higher than they were during the regular season. The first game went well over the total and even if this one is a tad slower paced, I would expect Murray to get his seven or eight attempts again. Unless he is ice cold, that gives him a good chance to cash this for us again. Most other books have it at -160 or worse.
