Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After months of the regular season and about a month of playoff action, we are down to just four teams remaining with a chance to win the NBA Championship. The Western Conference finals kick off Tuesday with the Los Angeles Lakers taking on the Denver Nuggets.
This is the first game of the series, so that is always a little bit of a question mark. Our NBA Betting Model thinks the spread and total are spot on, so we have to look to the player prop market for some value. I was able to find a few things and those became my NBA best bets for Tuesday on FTNBets.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 Assists
Nikola Jokic has been awesome in the playoffs. It would not shock me if he threw up another triple-double here, but that is not our baseline. Jokic projects for under 9 assists, and we would need 10 to cash the over. The under is at even money on FanDuel and plus money on DraftKings. Jokic only had double-digit assists in one matchup against the Lakers this year, going for 9 or fewer the other three times. His chances for 10 or more come in under 50%, yet the payout at +105 implies it’s more likely than not to happen. That means we have value on this number.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Michael Porter Over 5.5 Rebounds
Michael Porter was clearing this easily last series. This was especially true toward the end of the series as his minutes were high. Porter is seeing more court time as the rotation has shortened during this playoff run. As long as he is out there for 35 or more minutes, he should continue to pump these big rebounding totals. If you look at both the Minnesota series and the past series against the Suns, the pattern was evident. He played 30 or more minutes in four of the five games against the Timberwolves and had 8 or more rebounds in three of them. He played 30 or more minutes in three of the six games against the Phoenix Suns (two were blowouts or he would have stayed on the floor) and topped 7 or more rebounds in all of them. We project this game to stay close, which is good for the minutes. When the games stay close, He tends to get at least 7 rebounds, which would sail by the 5.5 number.
Best NBA Block Prop Bet
Anthony Davis Over 2.5 Blocks
Anthony Davis has been a human eraser in these playoffs. He has blocked three or more shots in eight of the 12 games against the Warriors and Grizzlies. He has averaged over three blocks per game in those two series as well. Davis is a superb athlete and has long arms to go with his size. This allows him to block and alter a ton of shots around the rim. He had a 7-block game in the first matchup with Memphis in the playoffs, and it may take a few games of him swatting balls before Denver adjusts and avoids giving him the chance to. I prefer to take this number earlier in a series as we have seen his shot blocking prove to be a deterrence to opposing players by the end of them.
