Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
This is a big day in the NBA playoffs as we have two teams fighting for their lives down 3-1. The Miami Heat return to New York as the Knicks try to stay alive with a Game 5 win to push the series to 3-2. The Golden State Warriors are in the same boat as they trail the Lakers 3-1 in that series.
Both road teams have the lead here, and both are underdogs Wednesday. Each series has some interesting quirks that have led to some inefficiencies in the player prop market. Below are my three NBA best bets for Wednesday’s games and my favorite way to take advantage of those inefficiencies.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
RJ Barrett Over 19.5 Points
RJ Barrett has scored at least 24 points in three of the four games in this series. He has only missed this mark in one game. His minutes are solid, playing at least 35 in all three games that he managed to top 20 points. The Knicks are getting nothing offensively from guys like Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein. They are getting little from guys like Quentin Grimes and Josh Hart. Immanuel Quickley is doubtful too. That really only leaves Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and Barrett to carry the scoring load.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Draymond Green Over 7.5 Rebounds
The Warriors are trying to find the right combinations on defense to slow down the Lakers. If you look at the minutes, they are totally different than they were earlier in the series. Kevon Looney played very little the last couple games. Jordan Poole as well. One guy who has benefitted from that is Draymond Green. Draymond played 37 minutes last game and had a very Draymond Green type of stat line with 8 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists. It was his second double-digit rebound game in the last three. In those three games, Looney played just 12, 16 and 11 minutes. If Looney is not on the court to suck up all the rebounds like he did last series, that opens the door for Draymond to have bigger games doing just that.
Best NBA Rebounds + Assists Prop Bet
LeBron James Over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists
LeBron James has not had massive scoring ceilings in this series, but he has been putting up great all-around numbers. He has 15-plus rebounds + assists in three of the four games they have played. He has had between 7 and 11 rebounds in every game, averaging just shy of nine in the series. After having a combined 7 assists in the first two games, LeBron had six and eight for an average of 7 over the last two. He’s topped this number in 75% of the games this series and should continue to rebound well on top of his renewed playmaking in the last couple games. The PRA number over 40 seems a bit high given he has not exploded for big scoring nights. He has been contributing across the board though, which is why I love this number for him.
