Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The first round continues with seven series left to finish. The Minnesota Timberwolves were the first team to close out their series with a sweep of the Phoenix Suns. They looked great in all four games and have shown they can win another series or more in this postseason. Five of the seven remaining series involve a team with at least three wins or likely to have three or more wins after tonight. That leaves two tight series that could extend the first round into next week.
It’s a great time of year for NBA fans, and tonight is no different. Yes, there are some big favorites, but that means we get to see some of the league’s best teams. Let’s go through each game, review how the series has gone so far and try to find some value in the betting markets. Of course, since it’s Monday you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions about something I missed or bets of your own, leave them in the comments section of that video and I’ll reply there. Now, on to the hoops!
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
Current Line – Celtics -10.5, 203.5
My Projection – Celtics 105, Heat 96
Key Injuries – Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are out.
In Game 3, the Celtics had more possessions, shot more free throws, shot better from the field and beat the Heat by 20 points. That was after Miami upset Boston in Game 2 by making 53% of their 43 three-point attempts. That’s quite a performance, and it will take that kind of anomaly for the Heat to beat the Celtics again in this series. Without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, Miami is limited on both ends of the floor. Butler is their best one-on-one scorer, while Rozier is one of the most reliable point guards on the team. Both are also strong defenders, especially as part of the team’s halfcourt press, trapping zone defense. Erik Spoelstra is doing his best, but there just isn’t enough talent on this team to beat Boston without something crazy happening.
The Celtics closed Game 3 as 9.5-point favorites and the total closed at 205.5 points. We see the market has adjusted the spread only a point toward them for this game. That makes sense to me. Boston is the better team, has been the better team and should continue to be the better team. I’m not ruling out Miami stealing another game with a barrage of three-point attempts, but it’s hard to know when that might happen. The total dropped two points which makes sense given the slow pace of this series. We’ve seen paces of 88, 93 and 84 in the first three games, respectively. Barring another aberrant three-point shooting performance, these games will struggle to get to 205 points. All these numbers look right to me, so I’m going to pass.
Bets – None
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans
Current Line – Thunder -4.5, 205
My Projection – Thunder 108, Pelicans 99
Key Injuries – Zion Williamson is out.
The Pelicans had a chance to win Game 1 but were unable to score enough late and let the Thunder sneak away with a two-point victory. OKC cruised through Game 2, winning by 32 points, and Game 3, winning by 21 points. The Thunder won the possession battle and shot much better in both of those games. Without Zion Williamson, the Pelicans don’t have a star player and are effectively a worse version of their opponent in this series. Brandon Ingram is good and Trey Murphy gets better with each game, but they are not capable of carrying their team. New Orleans isn’t big enough to beat up on a small team like OKC and lacks a way to truly differentiate itself. A young Oklahoma City team looks like it is on its way to winning its first playoff series as a group.
Game 3 closed with the Thunder as two-point favorites and a total of 210 points. The market has adjusted both of those numbers in a significant way. The spread is three points greater for this game, which is a meaningful change without any adjustment in players who will be on the floor. The drop in the total is also a big move and one that is due to the poor efficiency of the Pelicans in the first three games. Pace was actually up in Game 3 to 96, but there were still only 191 points scored. That change makes sense to me. To get over the total, the game will have to stay quicker and shooting will have to improve. If the game is slower like Game 1 and Game 2, then the shooting will need to improve drastically. I won’t be betting on the total, but I think the spread is still not quite right.
I make the Thunder nine-, almost 10-point favorites. Of course, it’s hard to trust a young team to close out a series. OKC knows it can lose tonight and close out in front of its home crowd in Game 5. New Orleans knows it has to win or its season is over. I think the Thunder got their scare in Game 1 and will continue to roll over the Pelicans like we’ve seen the last two games. New Orleans is playing for its life, but has been roundly defeated twice and knows it won’t have its star returning any time soon. Let’s hope the pre-game cheer for the Pelicans is, “one, two, three, CANCUN” and for the Thunder is, “one, two, three, sweep.” Even if New Orleans doesn’t quit on its season, I think Oklahoma City wins this game comfortably.
Bets
Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Current Line – Nuggets -7, 217
My Projection – Nuggets 112, Lakers 106
Key Injuries – Jamal Murry and Jarred Vanderbilt are questionable.
The Lakers finally beat the Nuggets! For the first time since December 16, 2022, Los Angeles scored more points than Denver in an NBA basketball game and avoided being swept out of the postseason. The Lakers shot 52% from the field and scored 20 more points in the paint than the Nuggets, who shot 44% from the field. Outside of that, there wasn’t much to separate these two teams. Neither had significantly more possessions from lack of turnovers or by grabbing more offensive rebounds. Denver shot seven more free throws and made six more free throws than Los Angeles. There was just a two-point difference between them in the second half of the game. The Lakers won, but it felt like the Nuggets would have won had they shot near their season average, which should be easier to do at home in Game 5.
Game 4 closed with the Nuggets favored by 3.5 points with a total of 220 points. That spread was a five-point change from Game 3 when the Lakers were favored by 1.5 points. Tonight’s adjustment is only a four-point change from Game 4, which seems fairly low since the change from Game 2 to Game 3, the last time the venue changed, was eight points. That difference leads me to believe that Jamal Murray is more likely to miss tonight’s game than he is to play. Denver is still the better team, but Murray is what makes them truly special. The drop in the total is also likely due to Murray missing the game. The Nuggets offense could be missing their best scoring guard and Jokic’s preferred pick-and-roll partner. The adjustments from game to game make sense to me, and the odds are close to my projections, so I don’t have any bets for this game.
Bets – None
