Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Wednesday night is usually one packed with NBA games during the regular season. Tonight’s playoff slate is no exception. We have four games, and all but the Warriors vs. Kings are elimination games.
Before we begin, make sure you check out the latest edition of Betting With Benny:
The Cavaliers, Grizzlies and Bucks are all down 3-1 and need to win to stay alive. The Knicks, Lakers and Heat all have a chance to close out the series as lower-seeded teams playing on the road. I have found quite a few interesting betting opportunities tonight, but here are my three best NBA bets for April 26.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets
Julius Randle UNDER 21.5 Points
This has been a low-scoring series with no game topping 198 total points. Cleveland was the No. 1 team for defensive efficiency during the year and also played at the slowest pace of any team in the league. If you were going to create the worst possible matchup for a scorer, this would be it. Julius Randle averaged 24.6 points per game this season, but he has come in under 21.5 in all but one game this series. That one game he scored 22 points, so he only topped his prop number here by half a point. This is juiced down and our biggest edge on points in the FTN Player Prop model at over 10%.
Austin Reaves OVER 15.5 Points
Austin Reaves has been great in this playoff series. He cashed his points over at 14.5 last game, and it’s a full point higher today. We still like it, and it’s our top point-scoring edge in the model. Reaves averaged under 30 minutes per night this year but had a solid 13.3 points per game. He’s played 37, 35 and 42 minutes in the last three games for the Lakers. The increased minutes have translated to increased scoring. Reaves has averaged just shy of 13 field-goal attempts per game this series versus just eight during the regular season. Increased opportunity is why he should continue to cash these overs.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Mitchell Robinson UNDER 9.5 Rebounds
This bet is priced as high as -135 for the under, so to get it at -113 on BetRivers is a steal. Mitchell Robinson had a double-double last game, but it was the first time he had double-digit rebounds the entire series. He’s still splitting time with Isaiah Hartenstein, although he is seeing the bigger share of that split. Julius Randle had a surprisingly low two rebounds in that game. I would expect him to bounce back closer to the 8-10 rebounds he had in each of the first three games. That low number for Randle contributed to Robinson getting over 10, but I am expecting that to regress back to the mean.
