Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We have two final play-in games in the NBA Friday before the playoff schedule is set. The winners of these games get the privilege of facing the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks in their respective conferences. While that does not seem like a great prize, it is better than the losers get as they are eliminated from the postseason.
Chicago and Oklahoma City got here by winning do-or-die games Wednesday night. Miami and Minnesota are here because they lost their Tuesday matchups against the Hawks and Lakers, respectively. Let’s take a look at each of these matchups and see if we can find some good betting value.
Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat Best Bets
This should be one of the lower-scoring games of the playoffs. The Heat and Bulls both play at a slow pace. Chicago ranked 20th in that category during the regular season and Miami was not far behind in 29th. Both teams struggle offensively and are solid on the defensive end. Chicago edged Miami slightly in points scored per 100 possessions, but they ranked 24th and 25th, respectively, in that category. To make matters worse for the offense, both teams ranked in the top seven for fewest points allowed per 100 possessions, with Chicago finishing fifth and Miami at seventh. Chicago has had Miami’s number, winning all three matchups this season by at least 8 points and with an average margin of victory over 10 points in the three meetings. The injury reports for each team look good, so we should not have any major pieces of either team missing from recent contests.
Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat Spread -5
The Bulls ranked slightly higher than the Heat on both ends of the floor during the regular season. It was very close as Chicago averaged only 0.5 points per 100 possessions more than Miami, but they also allowed just shy of a point less too. Miami had the better record during the regular season, so they get the home court advantage for this elimination game. Miami lost all three previous meetings this year by 8, 10, and 14 points. Given that track record, Chicago favored by only five seems a bit light, even with the game on their home floor.
DeMar DeRozan Over 21.5 Points
DeMar DeRozan has torched the Miami Heat this season. He scored 37, 24 and 24 in the three previous matchups for a 28.3 point per game average. One of those games was played without Jimmy Butler, but DeRozan still dropped 24 or more against Jimmy in the two games they did match up. That is at least a 10% edge from his floor vs. the prop price offered.
Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 Assists
Yes, this is juiced up a little bit, but that is because this number feels extremely low. Bam Adebayo has averaged 4 assists per game against the Bulls this year, so I was expecting this to be 3.5. The -140 price at over 2.5 is basically the same as over 3.5 at around -110 or shorter. I would play it at that price too if you can find it in the market, but I have more faith in the 2.5 and do not mind paying up for it, especially in a same game parlay.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Best Bets
These two teams like to get up and down the court. The Thunder played at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA and the Timberwolves were not far behind at seventh. Neither team was particularly efficient on the offensive end as OKC ranked middle of the pack and Minnesota is down right in front of Miami and Chicago at 23rd. What has buoyed Minnesota this season is a top 8 defense in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions. Oklahoma City on the other side was middle of the pack again, ranking 16th in points per 100 on offense and defense. The Timberwolves won three of the four matchups against the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 4.5 Assists
(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has really taken a massive step forward this season. He’s one of only a handful of players to average over 30 points on the season and has basically carried the OKC offense on his back. The points total is right where it should be at 33.5, with SGA scoring 32, 33 and 35 points in the three matchups against Minnesota this year. The number I like more for him is assists. He’s averaged 5.5 on the season and had at least 5 in all three matchups against the Timberwolves that he played in. If the Thunder are going to win this game, they are going to need a massive all-around effort out of SGA and any coach worth his salt is going to look at the game tape and realize that the best path to victory vs. OKC is forcing Gilgeous-Alexander to be a distributor. Rudy Gobert is likely back for the Timberwolves in this one and that should also lead to more drives and kick outs for the Thunder as he protects the rim.
Josh Giddey Under 36.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
In four games against the Timberwolves this year, Josh Giddey has only been able to top this number once. He had a game of 21/12/7 for 40 PRA but did not top 30 PRA in any of the other matchups. This will be a tough spot for rebounds if Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns are both active for the Wolves. It will be a tough scoring matchup as Minnesota ranks 8th for fewest points allowed per 100 possessions. Giddey can stuff a stat sheet, but outside of the expected fast pace, I am not sure what other catalyst helps him top this.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Total Under 229
(-110, PointsBet)
This is the highest total out in the market and the price action was really interesting here. I expect Rudy Gobert to be in uniform for this game. Gobert is one of the biggest impact players when it comes to a spread coming in under. His defensive ability is top of the league and his offense is well below average. A guy who probably costs his team points on one end but makes up for it by denying his opponent more points on the other is always going to drop a spread a few points. We have already seen money come in to the under as this is down below 228 on most other books already. Take the PointsBet number now as I doubt it lasts much longer from that opening price.
