Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The pre-playoffs come to an end Friday, with the final two games of the Play-In Tournament. Injuries from the first few games of the Play-In have certainly sucked some of the excitement of these matchups, but we should see two hard played, competitive basketball games.
I think all four teams playing Friday are fighting to earn the right to lose quickly in the first round but making the first round is always better than not making it. Veterans get to measure themselves against some of the league’s best players and younger guys get to experience how different the playoffs can be from the regular season. Let’s go through each game, see what might happen, and find some value in the betting markets.
Of course, since it’s Friday you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN YouTube channel. If you have any questions about something I missed or bets of your own, leave them in the comments section of that video and I’ll reply there.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
Current Line – Heat -1.5, 206
My Projection – Heat 107, Bulls 104
Key Injuries – Jimmy Butler is out. Alex Caruso, Ayo Dosunmu, and Andre Drummond are questionable.
The Bulls played a good game and beat the Hawks comfortably Wednesday. If Chicago can win this game, then they will be the 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. Coby White led the way with 42 points Wednesday, but the entire team played well. The Bulls shot over 56% from the field and over 42% from beyond the arc. That’s what Chicago needs to do to continue winning games, but that’s easier said than done. For the season, the Bulls shoot 47% from the field and 32% from three-point range. They can summon a great performance like we saw on Wednesday but it’s hard to expect that to happen with any regularity. Chicago has been a mediocre team all year and barring outlier performances they will continue to be a mediocre team. I’m excited for the Bulls to make the Play-In Tournament for a third time in a row next year.
I love the Play-In Tournament, but this year it took two great players away from us. One was Jimmy Butler, who appeared to hurt his knee early in the game against the 76ers Wednesday. Butler was able to finish the game, but Miami still lost. He sprained his MCL and is expected to miss several weeks of playing time. The Heat are still a talented team but have a much lower ceiling with Butler. Erik Spoelstra will find a way to get Bam Adebayo more involved in the offense and try to unleash Tyler Herro. Miami will continue to play great defense and frustrate opponents with their zone defense which is effectively a halfcourt press. That scheme generates turnovers and easy baskets. That’s enough for them to win games but it looks like the Heat won’t be surprising the Eastern Conference’s best teams this postseason unless Butler makes a miraculous recovery.
I favor the Heat in what should be a tight game. Chicago beat Miami in two of the four games they played this season so they know what it takes to have success in this matchup. If the Bulls can keep from turning the ball over and shoot anywhere close to what we saw on Wednesday then they can win this game. If Tyler Herro can lead the Heat’s offense and Bam Adebayo can continue to lead the defense. they will win this game. I don’t see value in the spread, but the total looks several points too low to me. Butler does remove a scorer from the game but I expect Miami and Herro to push pace. Missing Butler also takes one of the Heat’s best defenders off the floor. Chicago’s shooting will regress but if they can reach even their average level of efficiency then there should be plenty of points to get over this total. I expect 211 points and we get a chance to bet over 206. Let’s do it.
Bet
Chicago Bulls/Miami Heat Over 206 (-110, Caesars)
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
Current Line – Kings -1, 210.5
My Projection – Kings 108, Pelicans 103
Key Injuries – Zion Williamson, Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk are out.
After scoring 40 points and dragging the Pelicans to a tie with the Lakers, Zion Williamson landed funny and apparently hurt his hamstring. The star left the game, didn’t return and is out indefinitely. Also concerning for New Orleans was the play of CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram, who were -17 and -16, respectively, in the game. The Pelicans have several good players but there is no one even close to a star player without Zion. I’m excited to see Trey Murphy III step into a bigger role and that’s really all I’m excited about for New Orleans. Unless Ingram, Murphy, McCollum or some other player(s) can raise their games to a new level then the Pelicans season will end quickly. Even if that does happen, it might end quickly anyway.
The Kings were 33-23 and the 5 seed in the Western Conference Feb. 25. They finished the season 13-13 and fell all the way down to the 10 seed. Sacramento became just the third 10 seed to win a game in the Play-In Tournament and now have a chance to be the first 10 seed ever to make the actual playoffs. The losses of Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter have clearly hurt the Kings. Monk was the only scorer Sacramento could bring off the bench and Huerter allowed De’Aaron Fox to play off the ball on offense. Those seemingly small contributions add up over time and without them, the Kings are worse in a small, but meaningful way. Domantas Sabonis and Fox will still win them a lot of games next season, but I don’t expect many more victories in this season for Sacramento.
That said, I do expect at least one more victory for the Kings here. The Pelicans are a mess and without Zion, New Orleans has less talent on their roster and not much to differentiate them from Sacramento. The Pelicans did beat the Kings without Zion in January but that was a long time ago. New Orleans looked rudderless without Zion on Tuesday and I’m not sure Willie Green has the tools or time to fix that problem. Sacramento has an average defense which is enough to slow down this version of New Orleans. The Pelicans do still have a few great defensive stoppers and perhaps they can make things difficult enough for Sabonis and Fox to keep this game close. Unless they do, New Orleans will struggle to keep pace with Sacramento. I’m betting on the Kings.
Bet
Sacramento Kings -1 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
