Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s year four of the Play-In Tournament, and Wednesday we see the Eastern Conference matchups.
The Play-In has been a great addition to the NBA. It gives two more teams, the 9 and 10 seeds, a shot at the playoffs, while also creating more risk for the 7 and 8 seeds. That means more teams care about more games late in the season. We saw great basketball last Friday and Sunday as teams fought hard to hold onto their spot or get to a better one.
There are two games Wednesday, and at least one of them should be a great game to watch. Let’s break down all the teams, look at projections, and try to find some value in the betting markets. Since it’s Wednesday, I decide to do a surprise video version of Hoops with Noops. You can that on the FTN YouTube channel. If you have any questions about something I missed or bets of your own, leave them in the comments section of that video and I’ll reply there.
NBA Best Bets for Wednesday
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
Current Line – 76ers -5.5, 208
My Projection – 76ers 109, Heat 104
Key Injuries – Terry Rozier and De’Anthony Melton are out. Joel Embiid is questionable.
The Heat have been one of the best postseason teams in the NBA for a few seasons. Erik Spoelstra is the best coach in the league, Jimmy Butler can create a good shot at any time, and Bam Adebayo is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. That’s the combination you need to win in the playoffs when games get tight, and teams have time to prepare for their opponents. The potential is always there for them to beat great teams, but we haven’t seen them reach that level this season. Miami is not shy about sacrificing the regular season for health in the playoffs. In past years we’ve at least seen them play dominant basketball for a few weeks and we didn’t see that this season. The Heat were 5-20 against the NBA’s best teams. If Miami can find a new gear like seemingly do every April, then they are a scary opponent for any team. If they can’t then it may be a short postseason for the Heat.
Joel Embiid returned for the 76ers, who won their last six games to earn homecourt advantage in this one. The reigning MVP is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play. With Embiid, Philadelphia might be the team with the bests chance of beat the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference. Without Embiid, the 76ers will struggle to get out of the Play-In Tournament let alone win a series. With a win tonight, they can avoid facing the Celtics until the conference finals. That gives Embiid time to get into game-shape and opens up the possibility that someone else might knock Boston out for them. Things are shaping up nicely for the 76ers, but they sit on the razor’s edge praying that Joel Embiid will be healthy and playing well into June.
Philly has struggled against the Heat in past season, but with Nick Nurse coaching the team the playing field is much more level. Adebayo does as good as anyone on Embiid, but that matchup is a strong edge for the 76ers. Without Terry Rozier, the Heat lack a great option to defend Tyrese Maxey. Philadelphia will miss De’Anthony Melton tonight and hope that bigger, but slower forwards can slow down Jimmy Butler. Put all that together and I think both teams will have trouble keeping the other from getting good looks. The Heat should try to push pace to keep Embiid running and to give them more chances to attack the rim while he’s not near it. I’m not saying this game will be fast, but Miami will try to push things when they can. Combine that with the matchup problems I laid out and I see value in betting the over tonight. Postseason games can slow down at the end, but that’s only if the game is close which means more free throws as one team foul’s late. I’ll bet the over at 209 or better.
Bet
Miami Heat/Philadelphia 76ers Over 208 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
Current Line – Bulls -3, 222.5
My Projection – Bulls 111, Hawks 109
Key Injuries – Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu are out. Ayo Dosunmu and Andrew Drummond are questionable.
The Hawks have twice made it through the Play-In Tournament to get to the playoffs. If they can do it again this season, they will become the first 10 seed from either conference to make the playoffs. It has been a long, strange season for Atlanta. The Hawks had injury problems with almost every player on the roster and never seemed to reach their potential. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray continue to struggle together and look better apart. Atlanta lost the last six games of their season although they already locked in their seeding. Before that stretch, they were able to beat good teams and defeated the Celtics, twice, and the Clippers. It’s a roster that looks full of potential but one that can’t seem to play winning basketball.
The Bulls were the 9 seed in the Eastern Conference for all but one day since Jan. 8. Since the All-Star break they have beaten the Timberwolves, the Pacers (twice) and the Warriors in Golden State. The Bulls have also during that period lost to the Pistons, the Wizards and the Nets. I’m not sure how to make sense of all that. Coby White, Alex Caruso and DeMar Derozan make a solid base, but they are no stars to put on that foundation. Chicago has several good players and plenty of serviceable players but that’s it. Their top level isn’t very high and although they can beat good teams, they generally don’t. Chicago doesn’t face a good team tonight, but they will in their next game and in the first round if they somehow make it that far.
If you can’t tell by now, I am not excited for this game. I couldn’t be happier that it’s the late because I will likely be in bed before halftime if not by tip. Much is made of Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and how they fit, but the success of the Hawks has hinged on Jalen Johnson more than anyone this season. He’s out tonight and that is a big blow to Atlanta. Johnson is a great defender and a good scorer who helps keep everyone else in the role’s best suited for them. The Bulls might be without Andre Drummond who unlocks the full potential of Chicago with his offensive rebounding. Both teams have been enigmatic all season and both are/may be missing key players. It was a hard number to make, but I have the Bulls -2 with a total of 220. That puts me close to market, so I don’t see any value and I really don’t want to have to sweat anything in this game. I’ll pass.
Bet
None
