NBA Play-In Game Best Bets (4/16)

Welcome to the NBA Playoffs … almost.

In July 2022, the NBA Board of Governors approved the adoption of the NBA Play-In Tournament featuring the teams ranked 7-10 in each conference. Now in its second season, the AT&T Play-In Tournament provides an additional week of drama for NBA fans.

Starting Tuesday, there will be a total of six contests across the two conferences. The No. 7 seed will host the No. 8 seed in the same conference. The winning team automatically becomes the 7 seed in the NBA Playoffs for its conference, while the losing team will still have a chance to earn the 8 seed in the NBA Playoffs in a subsequent game.

Our first two matchups feature the 7 seed New Orleans Pelicans hosting the 8 seed Los Angeles Lakers and the 9 Sacramento Kings hosting the 10 Golden State Warriors in the West. Let’s take a look at each matchup and our favorite bets.

(All odds from BetMGM.)

NBA Play-In Game Best Bets: Western Conference

Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans -1, Total 224.5

The Pelicans and Lakers battle in New Orleans Tuesday, their fifth meeting of the year. New Orleans was the much better team against the spread, ranking eighth-best overall at 44-37-1 (54.3%) ATS. The Lakers finished just ninth worst at 39-44 (47%) ATS. The Lakers were also poor on the road, finishing just 18-22 ATS (45%), but were 3-1 against the Pelicans including two outright wins as an underdog.

The Lakers dominated the Pelicans Sunday, thumping New Orleans 124-108. LeBron James posted a triple-double (28 points, 11 rebounds, 17 assists), and Anthony Davis added 30 points and 11 rebounds. However, Davis left that game with back spasms and is listed as questionable for this matchup.

New Orleans should see a huge boost in offensive production with the return of Brandon Ingram to his full workload. He only played 23 minutes in Sunday’s matchup, but head coach Willie Green has said he’s a full-go here. With Ingram back and Zion Williamson fully healthy, the Pelicans will put pressure on a Lakers defense that was just 17th in defensive rating this season.

The key to this game will be the Pelicans depth. With Ingram returning, New Orleans can rely on three key bench players with Larry Nance Jr., Trey Murphy and Jose Alvarado. Nance was particularly effective with 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists in Sunday’s loss. The depth will be a huge advantage, especially if Davis is slowed due to injury. The Pelicans love to attack the rim with Williamson, which makes a healthy and dominant Davis critical to the Lakers success.

The public is aggressively backing the Lakers, especially coming off Sunday’s blowout. They are underestimating this Pelicans offense that is now at full strength, against a Lakers team that has no depth and is battling a key injury to one of their biggest stars. LeBron James can always provide a legendary performance, but I’m backing the better offense and younger team at home.

The Pick

New Orleans -1

Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings

Golden State -2.5, Total 223.5

The Warriors finished the season at a disappointing 46-36, they but have closed the year winning eight of their last 10 matchups. Golden State was a solid 43-38-1 (53.1%) ATS, including an impressive 27-14 (65.9%) ATS away from home. That mark was the second-best in the NBA this season.

The Sacramento/Golden State matchup has been intense and includes a thrilling seven-game first-round playoff matchup last year. However, the Warriors have consistently gotten the better of the Kings, especially in the biggest games. They split their two matchups this season, with Stephen Curry dominating Sacramento at 33.7 PPG. The Warriors ability to distribute the ball is a huge challenge for a Kings team that ranks just 14th in defensive rating. Golden State is tied for third in assist percentage, which has led to the second-most points per game in road matchups this season.

These two teams last met Jan. 25, a 134-133 victory by Sacramento, but since that point the Warriors have caught fire. Golden State is a blistering 27-13 since that game and will face a Kings team that is still without Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk.

The Kings cannot defend a healthy Warriors team enough to grab this playoff win. Sacramento’s bench is now extremely shorthanded, which has directly affected their defensive efficiency. If the Kings were fully healthy, this would be a great matchup, but given the current roster I’m grabbing the Warriors as a slight road favorite.