NBA Game of the Day, 2/27: Lakers vs. Timberwolves

Thursday’s NBA slate is a small one but still a good one. The Golden State Warriors visit the Orlando Magic in a game that should be full of good defense. The Magic miss point guard Jalen Suggs but still have the players needed to turn the game into a grind. Can a veteran Warriors team compete with a younger, more athletic roster in a game played three time zones away from home?

The first game on TNT features two of the top three MVP candidates in Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Admittedly, I’d bet that neither does win the Michael Jordan Trophy, but we should relish every opportunity we have to watch these two guys play against one another.

As good as those games should be, the best game is the nightcap on TNT between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers. Here are my thoughts on each squad and my best bets for the game.

NBA Game of the Day: Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers

Current Line – Lakers -6.5, 228.5
My Projection – Lakers 116, Timberwolves 113
Key Injuries – Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert are out. Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo are questionable.

Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5

(-110, Caesars)

The Lakers are riding high right now. They beat the Nuggets by 23 points in Denver, and Luka Dončić had his best game since joining the team in a win over the Dallas Mavericks. Dončić is starting to look more like himself, and LeBron James seems to be willing to play more off ball to help the team win. Things are going very well, but I think all this excitement is overstated. The Nuggets, a team that usually doesn’t turn the ball over, gifted the Lakers 13 additional possessions from turnovers, and the Mavericks game was pretty close. The market has adjusted the rating on the Lakers higher than I have them. Los Angeles is clearly a better team with Luka Dončić and the improvements to their defense, but they are not a great team by any stretch. They also might not be totally focused on this game, which comes just ahead of Friday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers. Every win is important for this team, but their next game is more important because a win over the Clippers all but locks up the Pacific Division for the Lakers. They can cause distraction for even the best teams.

The Timberwolves are just 2-4 over their last six games, but looking more closely, that’s actually pretty good. They were underdogs in five of those games, against the Bucks, Rockets, Cavaliers and Thunder twice. That’s a brutal stretch, and I think Minnesota actually played well in those games. Over that stretch, the books have downgraded them, and I don’t think that’s correct. It’s never good to lose players to injuries, but they’ve looked better since losing Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. Both have struggled to contribute since joining the team and without them, the Timberwolves look faster, better defensively, and more comfortable playing together. The starting lineup has more shooting and players that don’t need to hold the ball. The second unit is much better defensively. I think Minnesota should be priced much closer to Los Angeles given the recent market adjustments and the matchup. The Timberwolves have the players to make things tough for the Lakers on offense and should be able to keep this game closer than the current 6.5-point spread.

Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this game and there is one in particular I like a lot.

Luka Dončić Over 1.5 Steals

(-105, FanDuel Sportsbook/DraftKings Sportsbook)

Although Luka Dončić isn’t much of a defender, he’s a smart player who understands where to be on the floor. Since joining the Lakers, we’ve seen him give more effort on defense and the result of that has been forcing more turnovers. Now, this isn’t written in stone, but I’m pretty sure that effort + smart positioning = steals. At the very least, our model at FTN seems to agree with me. We project Dončić to grab over two steals in this game and would price this bet at deeper than -150. At -105 or better, we have an expected value of over 20%, which makes this a wager well worth our money.

You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.