NBA Game of the Day, 2/27: Lakers vs. Timberwolves
Alex Christenson
The Los Angeles Clippers go to Phoenix to face the Suns in Monday’s nightcap. These teams are fighting for the Pacific Division title, and this game will make a big difference in that race. The Suns won the first two matchups between these squads in October. The Clippers need to win tonight and again in March or they’ll lose the head-to-head tiebreaker in the standings.
It’s a game packed with stars. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and even Bradley Beal are all healthy and expected to be on the floor to play. It should be a great way to wrap up a night jam packed with NBA basketball. Here’s my breakdown of each team and my best bets for tonight’s marquee matchup.
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Current Line – Clippers -2.5, 224.5
My Projection – Clippers 115, Suns 109
Key Injuries – Kris Dunn and Ryan Dunn are out.
Los Angeles Clippers -2.5
-108, FanDuel, DraftKings
The Phoenix Suns have had a very up-and-down season so far. They started by winning eight of their first 10 games, then lost 16 of the next 24 and have most recently won seven of their last 10 games. Coach Mike Budenholzer was hired during the offseason to find a way to make all the great pieces Phoenix has fit together. It worked at first but was quickly sabotaged by injuries and imbalanced lineups. They made a big change to the starting lineup on Jan. 6 by benching Bradley Beal and instead starting Ryan Dunn. That timing coincides with their last run of winning basketball. Dunn brings defense to the starting five that was sorely lacking, while Beal can carry the offense on the second unit.
The change has been a winning one for the team, but not bettors. The Suns are just 4-6-1 in their last 11 games and haven’t covered the spread in consecutive games since November. They are a veteran team that knows the real season starts in the playoffs. Perhaps that makes it hard for them to give 100% every night, or maybe the rigors of the regular season are too much for them. Regardless, I’m looking to fade this team until they show they can play great, or even good basketball for a sustained run.
The Los Angeles Clippers have been a weird version of the Suns or anti-Suns, if you will. They have yet to have a losing record in a 10-game stretch all season and are 26-19, putting them first in the Pacific. They are also 29-16 against the spread, which is second-best in the NBA. Most of this success has been without Kawhi Leonard, who returned to the court recently. James Harden and Norman Powell have carried the offense to be good enough, while the team’s defense, second-best in the league, carries most of the load for the eighth-best net rated team in the NBA this season. They have played very few bad games and almost never multiple in a row. I rate them well ahead of the Suns and see nothing on the injury report or in their schedule to make me believe they shouldn’t be favored by at least two buckets tonight. I’m laying the points on the road with the Clippers, and I think you should too.
Looking into players, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing nice edges on this event and there are a few options I really like.
Royce O’Neale Over 1.5 Made Threes
+110, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM
Our model projects Royce O’Neale to make 2.17 threes tonight, and the market is currently offering over 1.5 at +110 and even better. O’Neale has struggled to get over this number in the past few games, but with Ryan Dunn out, O’Neale should see extended minutes and therefore will be asked to take even more threes. We would price this over at -165 or deeper, so anything +110 or better is a great bet with an EV well over 30%.
Kawhi Leonard Under 1.5 Made Threes
-150, BetMGM, Bet365
I generally don’t like to lay this much juice on a prop bet, but our model and I love this bet even at -150. Kawhi Leonard is on a minutes limit for the rest of the season. The Clippers know how important he is to their chances of making a deep postseason run, so they are treating him with kid gloves. He’s played 24 minutes or less in every game this season and has put up very few shots from beyond the arc during that time. He’s averaging just over four attempts per game from three, and at a 31% hit rate is making just 1.3 threes per game.
Our model at FTN projects Kawhi to make just under one three and would price this at almost -300. So, even at -150, this also has an EV well over 30%.If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.
