Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Nuggets bounced back in a big way last time out, reclaiming home-court advantage and a lead in this NBA Finals. In what feels like a must-win scenario for the home team in Miami, let’s have some more fun and look at the “first basket” offerings look like in the prop market for Game 4.
Of course, Nikola Jokic and Bam Adebayo will jump it up. During the 2023 season and through the playoffs, Denver has won the tap in 47.5% of games compared to 52.9% for Miami. Jokic has a two-inch and about a 30-pound size advantage over Adebayo, and the two teams split the tap in Denver. We correctly predicted that Miami would control the tap of Game 3 after watching the tape of Denver’s Game 1 first possession and remembering that it was Adebayo actually controlling the tap but unable to be scooped up by Miami because Caleb Martin had just vacated that spot next to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and he ended up grabbing possession.
Jokic controlled most taps against guys like Karl-Anthony Towns in the first round and Jock Landale near the end of the second round when he was filling in for Deandre Ayton. But Jokic has struggled to win the first possession against opposing centers like the aforementioned Ayton, Anthony Davis and now Adebayo. Adebayo on the other hand got the better of Brook Lopez and Al Horford for the most part this postseason and was largely unsuccessful against more athletic centers like Mitchell Robinson and Robert Williams. It makes sense for Adebayo to be at an advantage here each game this series.
I’m going with Miami to win the tip again Friday, but of course we still need to figure out who’s going to score the first basket. Adebayo leads Miami this season, scoring the first basket in 10.4% of games. He also leads the Heat in the 2023 playoffs, scoring the first basket in seven of 21 postseason games after converting the first bucket in Game 3. He’s once again got the shortest odds of any Miami player (as he should) on DraftKings Sportsbook as of this writing at +500. That’s still the safest way to go. Jimmy Butler, who has scored the first bucket for Miami in 8.3% of games this season and just three of 21 postseason tilts, hasn’t scored the first basket for the Heat since the second round. I’m still going to stay away from him, given he’s posted at +550 I will just take Bam if going the “safe” route.
Let’s take a look back at Kevin Love, who was our pick before Game 3. The veteran forward was thrust back into the starting five in Game 2 after catching a DNP-CD in Game 1. Love has appeared in 18 of the 21 postseason games for Miami, starting 16 of them. Of those starts, he has scored the first basket for Miami in four games, the second most of any Heat player in the postseason and still the highest percentage of games.
Kevin Love has the longest odds out of any starter for either team on DK at the time of this writing once again at +1100. As I asked before Game 3, do you want safe? If so, you go with Bam Adebayo at +500. He has consistently been not just the most likely player to score the first bucket for the Heat, but nearly guaranteed to touch the ball on the first possession throughout these playoffs. But if we’re going for the fun and value combo, it’s going to be Love again for me here at +1100 once again, and it’s not without merit. Love did pass up a shot attempt on the first possession last game, receiving a dribble hand off from Jimmy Butler that Michael Porter was late getting over on. He ended up dishing it to Adebayo, who missed, then ended up scoring on the second possession. Love knocked down an open three on Miami’s third possession and there’s no reason that can’t also occur on the first possession in Game 4. Let’s ride with the old man again Friday.
