Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops: NBA Finals Edition. It’s time for a bittersweet moment, the NBA Finals. After almost eight months of basketball, I couldn’t be more excited to see two teams face off for a chance to win a ring and be part of history.
Unfortunately, this means there are at least seven more NBA games from now until October. I guess all things must come to an end, so let’s try to be positive and savor our last chance to enjoy basketball at its highest level and make some more money in betting markets. Another great part of the NBA Finals is that the long break and lack of other basketball games allow books the times to open up as many markets as possible.
Let’s go through the series, see how these teams match up, and try to find some wagers worth our money.
Boston Celtics (1) vs. Dallas Mavericks (4)
Season Head-to-Head Matchups
Key Injuries to Watch
Kristaps Porzingis
He is back practicing with the team but hasn’t played a five-on-five scrimmage yet and is listed as a game-time decision for Game 1 of this series. The Boston Celtics are a very good team without Porzingis and a great team with him. KP is the best rim protector on the team and on offense his shooting and post-up game allow Boston to score at historically high rates. The Celtics can win this series if Porzingis doesn’t play at all for some reason, but it would be much more difficult. Boston needs to get KP up to speed sooner rather than later so they can play their best basketball and win the title. From a game-to-game perspective, be sure you know as much as you can about Porzingis’ status before making a wager because his availability will move the spread significantly.
Who’s Going to Win the Series?
Series Price: Celtics -220, Mavericks +185
The Celtics were the betting favorites to win the title from before the season started and every day since then, and they are now favorites to win this series. They had the best per-game point differential since Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant all played for the Golden State Warriors. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are two of the best wings in the NBA. Both are very good defenders and efficient scorers on offense. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White combine to make one of the best defensive backcourts in league history and both shoot 40% or better from beyond the arc. Kristaps Porzingis is the cherry on the sundae. He adds dimension and versatility to the offense while being the team’s best rim protector on defense. It’s the strongest roster in the league, and there is depth at every position. The Celtics have been crushing opponents for months and have yet to face a team that can beat them four times in a series. Can Boston complete their journey and meet the high expectations set for them? Or will their lack of experience playing in tight games and grinding out wins cost them late in games? This is the second time in three years Boston had made the NBA Finals, and everything is in place for them to win their first title since 2008 and their second title since 1986.
The Mavericks were not the favorite to win the Western Conference until they won Game 1 of the Conference Finals in Minnesota against the Timberwolves. The Mavericks retooled at the trade deadline, bringing in P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, who have both been big parts of the team’s recent success. Washington has been a great wing defender and the team’s third leading scorer this postseason. Gafford has combined with Dereck Lively II to give Dallas 48 minutes a night of great rebounding, rim protection and finishing in the pick and roll. Supporting players like them and others have played well and allowed the team’s stars, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, to win games down the stretch. Both Luka and Kyrie have had down swings during these playoffs, but never at the same time and they both played great basketball in the last series. The combo gives Dallas something few teams even have one of and that is two players who can create good shots late in games. The Mavericks have tested those skills having played a lot of tight games and several they had to win late in the fourth quarter. Has all this hard work created a battle-tested team that knows how to make games difficult and more importantly, win those tight games? Or is this the end of a great run as they face a more talented, rested opponent? They are not expected to win the NBA Finals, but no one would be surprised if they did.
Overall, I think Boston deserves to be the favorites and even as much as the market currently makes them. The Celtics have the most talent and a ton of experience playing basketball this deep into the season. Coach Joe Mazzulla hasn’t been perfect, but he’s gotten better and is even making a positive impact in games. Tatum, Brown, Holiday and White have been winning games easily and finally get back their center in Kristaps Porzingis. The only issue is their historical struggles to score late in games. Tatum and Brown haven’t been able to create offense late in crucial games. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have made as many big, late game shots as anyone who has ever played in the NBA. That said, the Celtics have plenty of options to throw at both Mavericks’ stars. Tatum and Brown will take turns on Luka with maybe a little Jrue or White mixed in to change the look. Whomever is not guard Luka will be equipped to handle Kyrie. The fate of the Celtics is in their hands. If they can hold on to leads and close out games, they should be the final winner of the season. If they get nervous and struggle to score late, then the Mavericks are very live underdogs. I’m not betting on either to win right now, but there are other markets I see value in attacking.
One of my favorite bets is tied to the status of Boston’s center. Kristaps Porzingis is currently expected to play 20-plus minutes in Game 1, his first action in over a month. KP obviously makes the Celtics a better team, but how long will it take Boston to reintegrate him into the rotation and how to close to 100% healthy will he be? I expected his first game back to be a little clunky for Boston. Any time a team brings back one of their players, it takes time for others to adjust to their different roles and usage. If Porzingis comes back and is clearly not in the physical shape needed, then he could be a detriment to the Celtics. Lively and Gafford are athletic and play physically which will be tough for KP to handle if he’s not ready for it. Another consideration is his shooting. It can be tough for players to feel comfortable on a recently injured calf, and if it bothers Porzingis enough to keep him from shooting, he will shrink the floor for the Celtics on offense. These concerns lead me to my first bet, Dallas to win Game 1 and Boston to win the series. If the Celtics struggle at all to get KP back into the rotation, a battle-hardened Mavericks team will be ready to steal a game in Boston. That would give Dallas an edge, but there is still plenty of time for the Celtics to recover and win the series. I think there’s a decent chance KP isn’t his best early in the series but rounds into form as Boston captures the title.
My second bet comes in the market for NBA Finals MVP. This has been given to a player on the winning team all but one time throughout NBA history. It’s a good way to find some value on a team to win the championship without having to be their series prices. Similar to how quarterbacks are priced to be the Super Bowl MVP, Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic are priced close to their team’s odds to win the series. They are the best players on their respective teams and the likely MVP if they can win four games. That doesn’t mean they are the only options and I think there’s value further down the board. Kyrie Irving is clearly the second option in Dallas, but often the second option can become the top option as opponents focus all their defensive effort on Luka Doncic. Kyrie has made several game winning shots in his career and could have chances to do that again in this series. If Irving can have a few big moments late in games and Doncic is less than his best, then Kyrie is a very live candidate for Finals MVP. At +2000 or better, there’s a lot of value in betting Kyrie.
Bets
- Dallas Mavericks Win Game 1/Boston Celtics Win the Series (+500, FanDuel Sportsbook), 1U
- Kyrie Irving to be NBA Finals MVP (+2000, FanDuel Sportsbook), 0.5U
