Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Denver took back control of the NBA Finals with a big Game 3 win in Miami. After dropping one at home, they needed a road win to shift momentum and home court advantage back in their favor. The Nuggets would love to go up 3-1 in this series heading back to Denver with a chance to close it out.
The Heat obviously do not want their backs against the wall, so I expect a closer game Friday. The spread and total here are in line with the expectations from the FTN NBA betting model. I saw no edges in that market. I also did not see many in the NBA Player Prop market. I have only two bets I took Friday, but I think both numbers should be at least one or two numbers higher. The rationale is listed below in Friday’s NBA Finals best bets.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bets
Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds
Nikola Jokic had a monster rebounding game last time out, but here’s another reason I think it happened. Michael Porter is a horrendous defender, and it has cost him court time late in games. Porter had been the rebounding darling for the Nuggets lately. He ended the Lakers series racking up boards and started this one off that way too. He missed his rebound prop last game, but it was more about the lack of minutes than his production. He rebounded well when on the floor. The reason I am talking about Porter for the Jokic prop is because with Porter off the floor more often, Jokic was the guy who ended up grabbing those boards. Jokic is already a basic lock for a double-double, but that lock becomes stronger when you can add a reason for him to also see an increase on top of it. I know 12.5 is not an easy number to reach, but the man had 20 last game and has averaged more than that in his five matchups against the Heat this season.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Caleb Martin Over 9.5 Points
We hit on this last game at over 8.5 points for Caleb Martin. The reasoning was sound and still applies here. After a huge Boston series, Martin started slow vs. Denver. He was playing through an illness that kept him out of practice in between his poor Game 1 and Game 2 performances. He is feeling better and saw over 30 minutes last game after playing only about half the game in the two that took place in Denver. Martin has played great since Herro went down. He has been knocking down shots, having two more 3-pointers last game while also attacking the rim in transition. Do I think we see another 20-point game like he had in Boston? Probably not, but we only need 10 points to cash, and I do think he is capable of that.
