Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
This may end up being the last NBA Best Bets article of the season if the Nuggets handle their business as expected tonight. They travel back to Denver with the chance to close out the series. The Nuggets are nine point favorites in a clinching game in the NBA finals and most sportsbooks have the moneyline near -400. That means they have a 75-80% chance of winning and ending the 2022-23 NBA season.
The Denver Nuggets are -5000 or longer to cut down the nets. Nikola Jokic is that same price to win the MVP. If you are looking for some betting value, a lot of these numbers and markets are unbeatable right now. The one exception is the player prop market tonight and that is where today’s NBA Best Bets come from.
Best NBA Finals Points Prop Bets
Caleb Martin OVER 10.5 Points
(-104, BetRivers)
Caleb Martin had a rough stat to the series both on and off the floor. He was dealing with an illness that kept him out of practice between the first two games. His minutes dipped, his production dipped, and people wrote him off. He has now gone over his points prop in two straight games, scoring double digits each time. He’s also jumped back up to 32 or more minutes in each game, so it seems safe to say he is feeling much better. Martin had a monster series vs. Boston and saw his prop start in this series at 15.5 before dipping to 8.5 after his two sick games in Denver. The number should be 12.5, so getting reduced juice for a below market average number is still a good play again.
Max Strus UNDER 7.5 Points
(-110, PointsBet)
Max Strus has been dismal in all but one game of this NBA Finals. He shot 0-for-10 in Game 1. He went 1-for-7 in Game 3 and 0-for-4 in Game 4. The only game he shot well was in Game 2, where he knocked down four of the ten 3-pointers he attempted. Last game was the first time he played under 20 minutes in a game during the playoffs. This is a huge difference from the 25 to 35 minutes a night he saw in the Boston series, and below the 25 minutes per game he averaged in the first three games of this series. I would not be shocked to see him get under 20 minutes again tonight and he’s basically a stand still shooter that only has value if his shots are dropping. Right now, they are not dropping, which is why he only has 17 total points in 93 minutes of court time in the finals.
