Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA Finals tip off Thursday with the Denver Nuggets hosting the Miami Heat. Denver has been idle after dispatching the Lakers quickly. The Heat needed a grueling seven-game series to knock off the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. I have heard both sides of the argument and do think both camps are valid. Some think the Nuggets could be rusty coming off a long rest between games. Others think the Heat are at a disadvantage and will be tired.
I personally think none of that matters at this point. The Nuggets are the superior team, and this is a much different matchup than the Celtics series was. The spread here is large, but it should be and our NBA Betting Model has no value on either side. We were able to find a few good bets in the player prop and total markets. Those are outlined below in Thursday’s NBA Finals best bets.
Best NBA Finals Points Prop Bet
Caleb Martin Over 15.5 Points
Caleb Martin has been a different player in these playoffs. Not only have we seen his minutes jump up to the mid-30s from just shy of that during the regular season, but we have also seen him starting now. When Tyler Herro went down, shots became available for other players, and Martin has been one of the guys filling that void. He shot lights out against the Celtics hitting nearly 50% of the 45 3-pointers he hoisted up in that series. He’s also scoring in other ways as well. This number still feels a bit low. It opened at 16.5 and was bet down, but I’m trying to catch the dip here and take him for another over. He cashed overs consistently for us to end the Celtics series and averaged 19 points per game in that one. Yes, this is a different matchup, but I am not convinced the prop number is where it should be for his new role.
Best NBA Finals Total Bet
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Under 219.5
This number feels way too high, even with the Nuggets being so efficient. The only way this number gets there is if the game is a lot closer than the spread predicts. If the Nuggets fall behind big early and need to push the pace to come back. If it plays out the way most expect it to with the Nuggets pulling away, then I cannot see how the pace is going to be hot enough to get this game in the 220 range.
Best NBA Finals Triple-Double Bet
Nikola Jokic Triple-Double
Nikola Jokic averaged a triple-double in two games against the Heat this season. He missed doing it in one game, coming up two assists short. He’s triple-doubled in eight of the fifteen postseason games the Nuggets have played. The two-time MVP should have won a third this year. Not that he needs extra motivation as his eyes are on winning the championship, but I expect him to keep dominating. He is playing as well as anyone on the planet right now, and the across-the-board numbers he is putting up are eye-popping.
