Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saturday presents a modest five-game DFS slate around the NBA. A few teams will be on the second end of a back-to-back so be sure to keep an eye on the news as the day goes on. And as always, check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.
NBA Vegas Data for February 5 | NBA DFS First Look
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets
MIA -3.5, total: 226.5
Pace: MIA (27th), CHA (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Jimmy Butler (toe) is listed as probable for Miami. Meanwhile, both PJ Tucker and Max Strus are questionable to play.
Phoenix Suns @ Washington Wizards
PHX -8, total: 221.5
Pace: PHX (9th), WAS (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Bradley Beal (wrist) will remain sidelined for Washington.
New York Knicks @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -2, total: 213
Pace: NYK (28th), LAL (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- LeBron James is once again listed as doubtful for the Lakers. Carmelo Anthony (hamstring) has been ruled out.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -6.5, total: 216.5
Pace: OKC (17th), SAC (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- De’Aaron Fox is once again listed as questionable with his ankle injury. Marvin Bagley is also listed as questionable.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will remain sidelined until after the All-Star break.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trail Blazers
MIL -9, total: 226.5
Pace: MIL (9th), POR (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- In case you missed it, Robert Covington and Norman Powell have been traded. On Friday, Portland started Tony Snell and CJ Elleby.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Luguentz Dort sees a 4.0% bump in usage rate with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor this season
The Thunder remain without Gilgeous-Alexander, and in his absence, Dort has taken on a larger role. His usage rate climbs by 4.0% with Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor this season, while averaging a healthy 0.92 fantasy points per minute in the split. With Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined over the last three games, Dort has attempted 15, 17 and 16 shots, scoring 23, 30 and 18 real points during that span. This is a good matchup for Dort to keep it going, facing a bad Sacramento defense that is allowing the seventh-most points per possession (1.03) and 11th-worst field goal percentage (38.9%) off spot-ups this season. Dort, meanwhile, is averaging the seventh-most spot-up points per game on the year (5.9).
Anfernee Simons is sporting a 26% usage rate with Damian Lillard and Norman Powell off the floor
Portland has obviously been without Lillard for a while but now they will be without Powell and Robert Covington, who were traded on Friday. Simons is sporting a 26% usage rate with Powell and Lillard off the floor this season, while averaging 1.0 fantasy points per minute in the split. His role is absolutely massive at the moment and his price tag is a bit too cheap.
Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
CJ Elleby vs. MIL — Elleby started Friday with Robert Covington and Norman Powell no longer with the team. He logged 27 minutes and scored just over 22 fantasy points and is still minimum salary over on DraftKings.
Darius Bazley vs. SAC — Bazley entered the starting lineup Friday and hauled in 12 boards. He’s now recorded double-digit rebounds in each of his last two games, while averaging a healthy 19.0 rebounding opportunities per game during that span, good for the 13th-most in all of basketball. Assuming he starts again, Bazley is a very solid value play against an awful Sacramento defense.
