Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tuesday presents a small three-game DFS slate around the NBA, but even though it is a smaller slate, there are still plenty of moving parts. Be sure to stay updated over the course of the day, while also checking out the FTN NBA Optimizer.
NBA Vegas Data for December 14 | NBA DFS First Look
Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -8, total: 217
Pace: TOR (26th), BKN (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- OG Anunoby, Khem Birch and Precious Achiuwa will remain out for the Raptors.
- For Brooklyn, James Harden will be back after resting over the weekend, while Paul Millsap has been placed in the league’s health and safety protocols. LaMarcus Aldridge is out in the COVID-19 protocols, and Kevin Durant (ankle) is questionable.
Golden State Warriors @ New York Knicks
GSW -5, total: 211
Pace: GSW (8th), NYK (24th)
Situations to monitor:
- RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes will miss this game due to COVID-19 protocols.
Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers
PHX -1, total: 219.5
Pace: PHX (15th), POR (16th)
Situations to monitor:
- Deandre Ayton has missed the last two games with an illness and is questionable again Tuesday.
- Damian Lillard, meanwhile, returned for Portland in their last game.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Damian Lillard is sporting a 32.7% usage rate with CJ McCollum off the floor
McCollum will miss extended time, but Lillard finally returned to the Portland lineup over the weekend. He logged 37 minutes in the game, scoring 24 points to go along with 11 rebounds and six assists. The ball is obviously going to be in Lillard’s hands quite a bit, as his usage rate with McCollum off the floor this season is flirting with 33%, while he is also posting a 21% assist rate and averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute in the split. And in his last game, Lillard touched the ball 88 times, up from his season average of 80.0 touches per game.
JaVale McGee is sporting a 46% rebounding rate with Deandre Ayton off the court this season
Ayton has missed the last two games with an illness, and with the Suns also without Frank Kaminsky, McGee has been the starting center. He’s been very strong in Ayton’s absence, scoring 48.7 and 31.2 fantasy points over the last two outings. With Ayton off the floor this season, McGee is sporting a massive 46% rebounding rate, while also posting a 25% usage rate and averaging 1.38 fantasy points per minute. And in eight games as a starter this season, McGee is averaging 13.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.1 blocks per game.
Value Plays
Kevin Knox vs GSW — With RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes out, Knox should continue to play strong minutes. He logged 29 in New York’s last game and attempted a strong 15 shots, while sporting a solid 25% usage rate.
Chris Boucher @ BKN — Boucher continues to start for the shorthanded Raptors, and while the production hasn’t been amazing, he still presents a strong value here. Over the last two seasons, Boucher is averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute so his recent uptick in playing time is obviously important.
For more value plays, check out the NBA Cheat Sheets.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
DraftKings optimal lineup
Trey Burke (37.75)
Aaron Holiday (29.5)
Marcus Morris (41.25)
Kristaps Porzingis (53.25)
P.J. Tucker (44.75)
Eric Gordon (42.75)
Jayson Tatum (62.25)
Nikola Jokic (73.25)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Aaron Holiday (29.7)
Trey Burke (35.6)
Eric Gordon (39.1)
Malcolm Brogdon (46.2)
Marcus Morris (37.7)
Jayson Tatum (60.0)
P.J. Tucker (41.3)
Kristaps Porzingis (54.6)
Nikola Jokic (72.3)
Even with Jaylen Brown back for the Celtics, Jayson Tatum once again posted a huge game and wasn’t too popular on this slate. And for the third consecutive game, P.J. Tucker put together a ceiling game, as he continues to see more opportunities with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Caleb Martin sidelined for the Heat.
