NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/28)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

We have four games on tap on Sunday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.

*DraftKings’ main slate consists of the three games that start at/after 6:00 p.m. ET, whereas FanDuel’s main slate consists of four games with the first tipping off at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for November 28th | NBA DFS First Look

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers

MIL -3, total: 217.5

Pace: MIL (9th), IND (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Brook Lopez, Semi Ojeleye, and Donte DiVincenzo remain out for the Bucks.
• T.J. Warren remains out for the Pacers.

Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -2, total: 209.5

Pace: BOS (23rd), TOR (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Dennis Schroder and Robert Williams are out for the Celtics, while Jaylen Brown is listed as questionable.
• OG Anunoby and Gary Trent are questionable for the Raptors, while Khem Birch remains out.

Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -1, total: 224.5

Pace: SAC (11th), MEM (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Ja Morant has been ruled out for the Grizzlies.
• Richaun Holmes has been ruled out for the Kings, while Harrison Barnes is listed as doubtful and Moe Harkless is listed as questionable.

Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -10.5, total: 217.0

Pace: DET (17th), LAL (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Anthony Davis is listed as probable and LeBron James is listed as questionable for the Lakers.
• Killian Hayes and Frank Jackson are listed as probable for the Pistons, while Kelly Olynyk remains out.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below is one noteworthy stat from each game to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Sunday, November 28th.

In three games against the Pacers in the 2021 calendar year, Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 30.3 points, 13.0 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and a block per game.

While these numbers aren’t uncharacteristically good for Giannis, they are certainly bumps on his production from a nightly average, particularly the facilitating. The Pacers’ defense is one that many teams exploit, but superstars in particular seem to relish the chance to play against Detroit. On a four-game slate with very few trustworthy options at the top, Antetokounmpo should be the first player into your FanDuel lineup on Sunday.

In 159.3 minutes with Ja Morant off of the court this season, Jaren Jackson Jr. has seen a team-high +9.2% bump in usage rate.

The masses will flock to De’Anthony Melton and Dillon Brooks in the backcourt and while they aren’t bad plays by any means, I have much more interest in Jackson. His 33.8% usage rate sans Morant  is second on the team to Brooks (36.6%), but his 1.37 DK points-per-minute rate leads the team by a comfortable margin. Against a Kings defense that has been pushing the pace under Alvin Gentry, Jackson could be primed for a massive performance at a reasonable price tag.

Over his last two games, Marcus Smart is averaging 16.5 points, 8.0 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.5 steals in 34.5 minutes per game.

Smart’s production has been quite erratic this season, even with Jaylen Brown in and out of the lineup, but he’s turned a corner over the last couple of games. Smart should get an opportunity to continue the hot stretch he’s been on with Dennis Schroder out on Sunday,  as he should assume more ball-handling duties. The Raptors are not a defense to shy away from, making Smart a viable sub-$6k option on a small slate with so much peripheral upside.

Over his last three games, LeBron James’ 108.5 touches per game leads the entire NBA.

James hasn’t been back from injury for very long, but he’s immediately assumed his role as the alpha ball-handler on the Lakers despite the presence of backcourt black hole Russell Westbrook. James has topped 56 DraftKings points in two of his last three games, with the outlier being the 21-minute outing against the Pistons prior to his ejection. With the same opponent on Sunday, expect James to bounce back in a big way. He’s my preferred spend-up on DraftKings’ three-game slate being cheaper than his teammates.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Russell Westbrook ($11,000)
2. Anthony Davis ($10,800)
3. LeBron James ($10,500)
4. Jayson Tatum ($9,900)
5. Jaylen Brown ($9,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
2. Anthony Davis ($10,300)
3. LeBron James ($10,000)
4. Jayson Tatum ($9,700)
5. Russell Westbrook ($9,600)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
2. Anthony Davis (1x)
3. LeBron James (1.05x)
4. Russell Westbrook (1.1x)
5. Jayson Tatum (1.15x)

With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) last night.

• PG: Kevin Porter Jr. (54.00)
• SG: Terry Rozier (48.75)
• SF: Kevin Durant (70.25)
• PF: Rudy Gay (32.25)
• C: Christian Wood (63.50)
• G: Alec Burks (40.75)
• F: Maxi Kleber (24.50)
• UTIL: Clint Capela (53.25)

Total: 373.25

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k SUPER Swingman ($100k to first) last night.

• PG: LaMelo Ball (52.7)
• PG: Darius Garland (46.3)
• SG: Alec Burks (38.9)
• SG: Eric Gordon (34.7)
• SF: Kevin Durant (70.3)
• SF: Kevin Porter Jr. (49.6)
• PF: Christian Wood (61.7)
• PF: Wendell Carter Jr. (39.7)
• C: PJ Washington (38.0)

Total: 431.9

SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s NBA Jump Shot ($2k to first) last night.

• G: LaMelo Ball (62.98)
• G: Alec Burks (74.25)
• G: Kevin Porter Jr. (79.50)
• F: Christian Wood (81.25)
• F: Jimmy Butler (51.18)
• F: Wendell Carter Jr. (61.26)
• C: Clint Capela (77.29)

Total: 487.71

The chalk hit Saturday night, as the Charlotte Hornets – Houston Rockets game carried the most ownership on the slate and went to overtime after 270 combined points through regulation alone. Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood highlighted this game from both a production and ownership standpoint, as both players were vital to winning lineups.

Kevin Durant stuck out as a difference-maker on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He came in with just over 12% ownership on FanDuel and under 8% ownership on DraftKings. That was substantially lower than both James Harden and Luka Doncic, making Durant the profitable pivot among the studs. Those who pivoted caught the ceiling game.