NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/20)

For an eight-game NBA DFS slate on a Saturday, the injury news isn’t anywhere near as bad is it normally is. Of course, we still have to keep an eye on news as the day goes on, while using the FTN Daily Optimizer gives you a tremendous chance of finding success. 

Let’s take a look at Saturday’s action.

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 20 | NBA DFS First Look

Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards

MIA -2, total: 210.5
Pace: MIA (15th), WAS (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Tyler Herro missed Miami’s last game with a wrist injury and has been upgraded from out to questionable.
• Meanwhile, Bam Adebayo is once again listed as questionable with a knee injury.
• For Washington, Daniel Gafford is questionable with a thumb injury. He was a late scratch Thursday, moving Montrezl Harrell into the starting five.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers

IND -7, total: 213.5
Pace: NOP (26th), IND (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Devonte’ Graham sat out Friday with a foot injury. We’ll see if he can return Saturday.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics

BOS -10.5, total: 206
Pace: OKC (20th), BOS (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jaylen Brown has missed the last seven games with a hamstring injury and is once again listed as questionable.
• Robert Williams, meanwhile, has missed the last two games with knee tendinitis.

Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -6, total: 225.5
Pace: CHA (6th), ATL (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• P.J. Washington remains questionable with an elbow injury.

Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -11.5, total: 212.5
Pace: ORL (20th), MIL (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• Brook Lopez remains out for Milwaukee.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -1.5, total: 218.5
Pace: MEM (4th), MIN (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Dillon Brooks is dealing with hamstring soreness and is listed as doubtful for this game.
• De’Anthony Melton has been ruled out with a groin injury.

Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings

UTA -7, total: 222.5
Pace: UTA (7th), SAC (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers

POR -6, total: 217.5
Pace: PHI (22nd), POR (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Still no Joel Embiid for the 76ers.

Stats to Know

The Hornets are allowing a 64.5% field goal percentage from within six feet of the basket

That is the highest mark in the NBA, as Charlotte has struggled to protect the interior for years now. This bodes incredibly well for Clint Capela, who is averaging 9.9 paint touches per game so far this season, good for the sixth-most in basketball, while his 7.0 field goal attempts per game from the paint are tied for the second-most in the league. Capela is also averaging a healthy 3.9 points per game off cuts to the basket, as well as the second-most field goal attempts per game off the play type (2.9). Finally, the Hornets are also coughing up 6.8 points per game off putbacks, the seventh most in the league, making this a very, very good matchup for Capela. 

Desmond Bane is sporting a 28.2% usage rate with Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton off the floor this season

The return of Brooks has hurt Bane’s production a bit, but he’s still been able to hold onto the starting job. Tonight, however, minutes shouldn’t be hard to come by, as both Brooks and Melton will likely sit for the Grizzlies. And with both players off the floor this season, Bane is sporting a very healthy 28.2% usage rate, while also averaging exactly one fantasy point per minute in the split. It is a 6.6% bump in usage with both players off the court this season and as long as both Melton and Brooks remain sidelined on Saturday, Bane remains a very strong value option on this slate.

Rudy Gobert is averaging 2.6 points per game off putbacks this season

It shouldn’t surprise anyone, but Gobert is among the league leaders in that department. This makes his matchup with the Kings very enticing, as Sacramento is coughing up 8.0 putback points per game this season, good for the second-most in the NBA. Their 6.1% frequency rate allowed off the play type is also the third-highest rate in the league and in two meetings with the Kings so far this year, Gobert is averaging an insane 20 rebounds per game to go along with 14.5 points and nearly 49 fantasy points. If the Kings can keep this game close at home, Gobert could once again dominate. 

The Pelicans are allowing 21.8 points per game to opposing ball-handlers out of the pick-and-roll

That is the second-highest number in the league to this point of the season, while New Orleans is also coughing up the fourth-most points per possession (0.92) off the play type. This bodes well for Malcolm Brogdon, who is averaging 10.4 points per game as the primary ball-handler out of the pick-and-roll, which is the fifth-most in the NBA. He is also averaging 1.04 points per possession off the play type, while shooting nearly 49%. This is the second end of a back-to-back for the Pacers but because Rick Carlisle essentially gave up early in last night’s game, Brogdon only played 23 minutes, so he should be well-rested ahead of this fantastic matchup against the Pelicans. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

James Harden (70.5)
Frank Jackson (38.0)
Jeremy Lamb (44.25)
James Johnson (39.0)
Khem Birch (34.75)
LaMelo Ball (60.75)
Jayson Tatum (64.75)
Aaron Gordon (49.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Cade Cunningham (48.2)
James Harden (69.0)
Jeremy Lamb (46.1)
Gordon Hayward (49.3)
James Johnson (37.0)
Jayson Tatum (64.2)
Aaron Gordon (50.8)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (67.3)
Khem Birch (40.3)

It was nice to see Khem Birch, who was in Friday’s value article, make it into both optimal lineups Friday. Meanwhile, Jeremy Lamb had very much an outlier performance, scoring over 40 fantasy points in just 16 minutes of action. Finally, Aaron Gordon finally had a ceiling game for fantasy, which he really hasn’t done much since being traded to Denver last season.