NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/16)

Tuesday offers just a three-game NBA DFS slate, so value will be tough to find. Per usual, there are some situations that we need to monitor before lock, but this does expect to be one of the more calm slates so far this season.

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 16 | NBA DFS First Look

Golden State Warriors @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -3, total: 220.5
Pace: GSW (4th), BKN (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Joe Harris has been ruled out with a sprained ankle. Look for Patty Mills and Bruce Brown to see some more playing time.
• Gary Payton is probable for the Warriors.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Utah Jazz

UTA -9.5, total: 216
Pace: PHI (29th), UTA (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Danny Green remain out for Philadelphia.

San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -7.5, total: 219.5
Pace: SAS (4th), LAC (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jakob Poeltl (conditioning) has been ruled out for the Spurs. Although he’s cleared protocols, the Spurs will keep him out.
• Terance Mann is questionable for the Clippers with an ankle sprain.

Stats to Know

The Warriors are allowing the fourth-most points per possession off isolations (0.97)

Golden State’s defense has been playing very well this season, but they have a tall task against a high-powered Brooklyn offense led by Kevin Durant and James Harden. We know there is going to be plenty of isolation from this team, as Harden leads the NBA in points per game off the play type (7.4), while Durant is right behind him, averaging 5.4 such points per game, the third most in basketball. Harden’s 31.7% frequency rate off the play type is the second-highest mark in the league and he faces a Warriors team that is allowing the fourth-most points per possession (0.97) and fifth-most points per game (8.5) off isolation this season.

Andre Drummond is averaging 27.8 rebounding chances over his last four games

That four-game stretch has been without Joel Embiid, which should surprise no one. One of the best rebounders the league has seen, Drummond always dominates the glass but has especially done so as of late, averaging nearly 28 rebounding chances per game over his last four starts. With Embiid off the floor this season, Drummond is sporting an absurd 51% rebounding rate, while also averaging a healthy 1.32 fantasy points per minute. A matchup with Rudy Gobert could be tough but it does ensure that Drummond will always be around the basket, as Gobert is averaging 10.9 paint touches per game this season, good for the fourth most in all of basketball.

Thaddeus Young is averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute with Jakob Poeltl off the floor this season

Poeltl has cleared the league’s protocols but will sit this game out due to conditioning purposes. In his absence, both Drew Eubanks and Young have seen more consistent playing time, especially Young, who wasn’t really part of the rotation to open the year. However, he’s now logged at least 24 minutes in each of his last five games and with Poeltl off the floor this season, his rebounding rate climbs to a solid 23% mark, while averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute. Against a Clippers team that often plays small, we could see Young play some minutes at center in this game, giving him even more rebounding potential.

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

Lonzo Ball (53.25)
Cade Cunningham (51.5)
Talen Horton-Tucker (42.0)
Kristaps Porzingis (56.25)
Clint Capela (55.5)
Cole Anthony (53.75)
Cedi Osman (43.0)
DeMar DeRozan (54.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Cade Cunningham (48.6)
Lonzo Ball (49.4)
Cole Anthony (49.1)
Spencer Dinwiddie (51.5)
Cedi Osman (41.9)
DeMar DeRozan (53.6)
OG Anunoby (48.2)
Kristaps Porzingis (53.7)
Clint Capela (57.7)

With Evan Mobley struggling Monday and the Cavaliers already so short-handed, Cedi Osman stepped up with a huge game, scoring 26 points, adding two rebounds, five assists and a pair of steals. Getting a performance like that from a value option is massive, though it was interesting that neither optimal lineup had a true superstar in NBA DFS — no Nikola Jokic, no Luka Doncic, etc.