NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/13)

Hopefully we are starting to find some balance with these NBA DFS slates, as Saturday presents a very solid six-gamer. On top of this and every other article or piece of content, make sure you are checking out the unbelievable NBA optimizer every single day. It will make a huge difference. 

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 13 | NBA DFS First Look

Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers

IND -3, total: 214.5
Pace: PHI (30th), IND (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons remain out for Philadelphia.
• Caris LeVert has missed the last two games for the Pacers with back soreness. He is questionable for Saturday.

Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic

WAS -4.5, total: 204.5
Pace: WAS (22nd), ORL (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Bradley Beal will be out for personal reasons.

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans

MEM -4, total: 220
Pace: MEM (10th), NOP (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Brandon Ingram has missed the last seven games with a hip injury. He did log a full practice Thursday, however, and is once again listed as questionable.
• Dillon Brooks made his season debut Wednesday but sat out on Friday’s front end of a back-to-back. He is questionable but likely plays here.

Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -9, total: 202.5
Pace: DET (17th), TOR (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Both Khem Birch and Precious Achiuwa are questionable for the Raptors. If both are out, we could see more minutes from the always-efficient Chris Boucher.

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers

BOS -3, total: 203.5
Pace: BOS (26th), CLE (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jaylen Brown has joined Boston on their road trip and could play. He is questionable with a hamstring injury.
• Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen have been in the league’s health and safety protocols and are once again questionable.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -7, total: 221.5
Pace: MIN (9th), LAC (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Stats to Know

Spencer Dinwiddie sees a 7.0% bump in usage rate with Bradley Beal off the floor

Beal will miss Saturday’s game for personal reasons, and while it is obviously a large loss for the Wizards, it does open up more opportunities for the rest of this club. Dinwiddie sees a clear bump, as his usage rate climbs by 7% with Beal off the court this season, putting him at a very healthy 31.2% mark in the split. Meanwhile, he is also posting a very healthy 19% rebounding rate and 25% assist rate with Beal off the floor, while Dinwiddie is also averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute. For the season, he is averaging just under 30 minutes per game but with Beal out, Dinwiddie should see around 33-35 minutes, making him one of the better plays of the slate at just $6,500 on DraftKings.

Darius Garland is averaging 6.8 minutes of possession per game over his last two contests

Those aforementioned games have been the two contests the Cavaliers have played since Collin Sexton suffered his injury. During that span, Garland is also averaging nearly 87 touches per game and 4.74 seconds per touch. Over the course of the season, Garland is averaging 73.3 touches and 6.1 minutes of possession per game, so Sexton’s absence is clearly leading to more ball-handling duties for Garland, which was to be expected. And when playing alongside Sexton, Garland is more of a pass-first guard but with Sexton sidelined, he has been a bit more aggressive, attempting at least 14 shots in each of his last three games.

Kyle Kuzma is averaging 6.2 spot-up points per game so far this season

That number is good for the fifth most in the NBA, while his 5.5 field goal attempts off the play type are the fourth-most in basketball. Kuzma has been pretty good to start his tenure in Washington, averaging 14.8 points and 9.1 rebounds per game and he finds himself in a great spot to continue producing tonight. The Magic are a poor defense that is coughing up the second-most points per game (31.0) to spot-up shooters, as well as the fourth-most points per possession (1.09) and fifth-highest field goal percentage (40.9%). And like Dinwiddie, Kuzma also gets a bump without Beal, as his usage rate jumps by around six percent. 

Jonas Valanciunas leads the NBA in putback points per game (3.3)

Valanciunas has been amazing to start the season and the Pelicans have leaned on him heavily, especially with Brandon Ingram out. Ingram could finally return to the lineup, but I would still really like this spot for Valanciunas, as he faces a Minnesota team coming off the front end of a back-to-back. The Timberwolves are allowing the second-most points per game off putbacks (8.4), which bodes well for Valanciunas, who leads the league in putback points per contest (3.3). If Ingram is out, you obviously feel even better about Valanciunas but even if he is back, I wouldn’t remove JoVal from my player pool by any means.

Last Night’s GPP performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

Dennis Schroder (53.0)
Garrett Temple (33.5)
Alec Burks (37.75)
Nassir Little (41.0)
Richaun Holmes (47.75)
James Harden (68.75)
Aaron Gordon (45.0)
Luka Doncic (78.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Dennis Schroder (49.1)
Jrue Holiday (49.7)
James Harden (63.0)
Luka Doncic (72.9)
Alec Burks (38.3)
Nassir Little (40.8)
Aaron Gordon (47.8)
Richaun Holmes (49.5)
Kristaps Porzingis (48.4)

It was nice to see a vintage game from James Harden Friday. Not only were the peripherals once again there, but Harden finally got the scoring going, as he scored a season-high 39 points against the Pelicans. Meanwhile, Dennis Schroder was once again productive, as he has now scored at least 20 real points in each of his last three games, all of which have come with Jaylen Brown out of the lineup.