NBA DFS Preview - First Look (1/28)

The week ends with a massive 11-game NBA DFS slate.

We are still waiting on some very, very important news so, per usual, make sure you are staying flexible over the course of the day. Check out the FTN NBA Optimizer, too.

NBA Vegas Data for January 28 | NBA DFS First Look

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic

ORL -2, total: 212.5
Pace: DET (5th), ORL (14th)

Situations to monitor:

Jerami Grant has cleared the health and safety protocols and is listed as questionable for the Pistons. Kelly Olynyk is also questionable for Detroit.

Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -2, total: 218.5
Pace: BOS (21st), ATL (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

None.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -7, total: 227.5
Pace: LAL (2nd), CHA (4th)

Situations to monitor:

This is the second end of a back-to-back for the Lakers. LeBron James didn’t play Thursday and while Anthony Davis did, he could rest, especially after suffering a minor wrist injury.
For Charlotte, Gordon Hayward has been placed in the health and safety protocols. Kelly Oubre suffered a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets

POR -2, total: 233
Pace: POR (20th), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

Nassir Little will miss the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Robert Covington is listed as questionable with a knee injury and Dennis Smith is questionable with an ankle issue.

Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -2.5, total: 224.5
Pace: UTA (18th), MEM (6th)

Situations to monitor:

Rudy Gobert (calf) will remain out for the Jazz, while Donovan Mitchell (concussion) is listed as questionable. He’s missed the last five games.
For Memphis, Dillon Brooks, Tyus Jones and Kyle Anderson will remain sidelined.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Miami Heat

MIA -6.5, total: 209.5
Pace: LAC (15th), MIA (29th)

Situations to monitor:

Kyle Lowry is still away from the team due to a personal matter. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable with a toe injury.
Marcus Morris (personal) will remain out for the Clippers.

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC -1.5, total: 217
Pace: IND (23rd), OKC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner are once again out for the Pacers but Domantas Sabonis is listed as questionable.

Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans

DEN -4.5, total: 216.5
Pace: DEN (26th), NOP (19th)

Situations to monitor:

Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart are both questionable for this game with ankle injuries. Both players missed Thursday’s practice session.

Chicago Bulls @ San Antonio Spurs

CHI -2, total: 228
Pace: CHI (15th), SAS (6th)

Situations to monitor:

Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso will remain out for the Bulls.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -8.5, total: 230.5
Pace: MIN (3rd), PHX (12th)

Situations to monitor:

Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, Jae Crowder and Cameron Payne will all remain sidelined for the Suns.
D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley are questionable for Minnesota.

New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -9, total: 215
Pace: NYK (30th), MIL (11th)

Situations to monitor:

Nerlens Noel is listed as questionable for New York.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

CJ McCollum is averaging 2.1 points per game off screens this season

McCollum has been a bit underwhelming over his last two games but is still logging huge minutes for Portland right now, while seeing plenty of usage. His usage rate is flirting with 29% with Damian Lillard off the floor this season, while also averaging a strong 1.08 fantasy points per minute in the split. I love the combination of price and matchup for McCollum on Friday, as he faces an awful Rockets defense that is coughing up the most points per game (5.7), sixth-most points per possession (1.02) and eighth-worst field goal percentage (41.8%) to opposing players off screens this season. As you can see, that clearly bodes well for McCollum, who is tied for 10th in the NBA in points per game off screens on the year. He is also shooting a very solid 43.9% off the play type. This is a fantastic spot for McCollum to get right.

Tyler Herro is sporting a 33.9% usage rate with both Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler off the floor

Miami has been without Kyle Lowry due to personal reasons, but now Butler might sit out Friday’s game with a toe injury. If Butler is out, Herro becomes an elite play, especially since he’s still in the mid-range when it comes to price. With both Lowry and Butler off the floor this season, Herro is sporting a massive 33.9% usage rate, while also posting a solid 15% rebounding rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute. It has also been good to see no limitations in Herro’s minutes after missing three games due to health and safety protocols. Herro is in play regardless due to Lowry’s absence, but if Butler also sits out, he becomes a top-tier play on this slate.

LaMelo Ball is averaging 4.0 transition points per game this season

That is tied for ninth in the NBA, while also averaging a gaudy 1.13 points per possession off the play type. A game between the Hornets and Lakers, who are both top-five in pace, bodes extremely well for Ball, especially since Los Angeles is already coughing up the fifth-most transition points per game on the year (20.5). Opposing teams are also getting out in transition a healthy 16.5% of the time against Los Angeles this season, good for the fifth-highest rate in the NBA. And with Gordon Hayward out, Ball does see a 1.3% bump in usage rate, while his assist rate slightly climbs, too. He reminded everyone of the upside he has in Charlotte’s last game and Friday’s matchup is very, very favorable.

Jakob Poeltl is averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks

While Dejounte Murray has been amazing this season, Poeltl has been very good, too, especially as of late. Over the last two weeks, Poeltl is averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a healthy 33% rebounding rate during that span. And over his last six games, Poeltl is averaging 18.7 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 3.2 blocks and over 43 fantasy points per game. He’s a bit too cheap and a matchup with the Bulls is fine, as Chicago is allowing the fifth-most points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll this season (8.4), while Poeltl is seventh in such points per game (4.5).

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Devin Vassell vs. CHI — Vassell has logged 29 and 30 minutes over the last two games and with Keita Bates-Diop out, the minutes should remain solidified. And while it may not sound like a lot, Vassell has scored at least 23 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He’s still coming off the bench, but Vassell is making a case to enter the San Antonio starting lineup.

Jaylen Nowell vs. PHX — If D’Angelo Russell and/or Patrick Beverley are out, Nowell becomes one of the better value plays on the board. With Russell off the court this season, Nowell is sporting a strong 24.9% usage rate, 15% rebounding rate and 15% assist rate, while also averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute in the split.