Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Back and forth we go. This week has been up-and-down in NBA DFS, as we’ve gone from a two-game slate to 13-game slate and now back to a three-game slate Thursday. For such a small slate, there are a ton of injuries to go over. Let’s take a first look.
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NBA Vegas Data for January 20 | NBA DFS First Look
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks
PHX -3, total: 216
Pace: PHX (8th), DAL (29th)
Situations to monitor:
- Deandre Ayton will miss his second consecutive game with an ankle injury.
New Orleans Pelicans @ New York Knicks
NYK -4, total: 209.5
Pace: NOP (20th), NYK (30th)
Situations to monitor:
- Devonte’ Graham (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Pelicans.
- Cam Reddish still won’t make his New York debut, while Nerlens Noel remains out with a knee injury.
Indiana Pacers @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -11.5, total: 217
Pace: IND (27th), GSW (12th)
Situations to monitor:
- This is the second end of a back-to-back for the Pacers. Domantas Sabonis played through the end of Wednesday’s game with an ankle injury and could miss some time.
- Meanwhile, Malcolm Brogdon has been dealing with an Achilles injury so there is a chance the Pacers rest him here. Finally, Myles Turner will remain sidelined.
- Draymond Green (calf) remains out for the Warriors, while Otto Porter (rest) will sit the front end of a back-to-back.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Caris LeVert is sporting a 31.1% usage rate with both Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis off the floor
LeVert is coming off another strong game, scoring 30 points to go along with eight rebounds and two assists. He’s now scored at least 40 fantasy points in four of his last five games and should be in line for more usage, especially if Brogdon sits. His usage rate is just over 31% with both Brogdon and Sabonis off the floor this season, while averaging a gaudy 1.40 fantasy points per minute in the split. Meanwhile, the peripherals have been solid, too, as both his rebounding and assist rates are just under 20% with both players off the court.
Bismack Biyombo is sporting a 37% rebounding rate with Deandre Ayton off the court this season
The Suns will once again be without Ayton, which means JaVale McGee likely starts at center again. He underwhelmed in the last game, scoring just 18 fantasy points in 23 minutes. Biyombo, however, was dominant, scoring 17 points to go along with 14 rebounds. He’s only played about 103 minutes with Ayton off the floor since joining the Suns but in that stretch, Biyombo is sporting a 37% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute. Because Jalen Smith barely played last game, McGee and Biyombo should split the center minutes, putting both in play. Whoever is in the starting lineup is obviously the preferred player but that doesn’t mean Biyombo is out of consideration if he comes off the bench again.
Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
JaVale McGee/Bismack Biyombo vs. DAL — On a three-game slate with a serious lack of strong center options, both McGee and Biyombo make plenty of sense. Again, I’d assume McGee remains in the starting lineup but if they split the center minutes again, Biyombo remains firmly in consideration.
Duane Washington vs. GSW — Malcolm Brogdon has been dealing with an Achilles injury and on the second end of a back-to-back, it is very likely that he is either limited or ruled out entirely. If that is the case, Washington, who is just $3,400 on DraftKings, makes a ton of sense.
