Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Hello everyone! I hope you all enjoyed the All Star Break as we ramp back up into a seven game slate to begin our weekend! I have excluded the Bucks versus Wizards due to the spread. This article identifies the best bet from each game, so let’s dive right into the slate.
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Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets (-11.5)
Total: 226.5
I typically stay away from the prop market in games with a spread this large, but given the struggles the Nets have had defensively I have some interest in Jerami Grant’s points prop at 24.5. Brooklyn is 25th against Crafty Finishers and 23rd against Scorers this season. If this game stays competitive through the middle of the 4th and Grant has an opportunity to carve out 33 or so minutes, I believe he gets over his prop number.
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets (-2.5)
Total: 233.5
Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby remain out for the Raptors, leaving Norman Powell, Kyle Lowry, and Chris Boucher’s prop markets intriguing. Charlotte is a bottom third team both at the rim and perimeter defensively, while ranking 29th against Stretch Bigs per our Advanced DVP tool. Boucher should continue to see increased minutes here. Sporting an 18.5 points prop, the over looks quite interesting tonight.
Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks (-4.5)
Total: 239
A relentless Hawks offense against a Kings defense whose defensive efficiency continues to rank historically bad. With a 121.5 team total, I’m going to be on the Hawks to go over that number tonight, as the Kings have seen opponents go over this number in five of their last six road games in the Eastern or Central time zone (Pistons being the exception). Additionally, Clint Capela’s over 14.5 rebounds line is an attractive number, with Sacramento ranking dead last against Rebounders this season.
Portland Trail Blazers (-5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Total: 234.5
In their last 15 games, the Trail Blazers are 26th against Scorers and 28th against Primary Ball Handlers. Karl-Anthony Towns’s usage sits over 31% with D’Angelo Russell off the floor this season. In a matchup against Enes Kanter, Towns’ 23.5 points prop looks to be a couple points below where it should be. While juiced at some books, you can find this number at -125 on BetMGM.
Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets (-1)
Total: 215.5
While Paul Millsap returned last night, Nikola Jokic is questionable. If Jokic is indeed out for Denver, look at Michael Porter Jr.’s points prop to go over 15.5. He averages around 22.5 points per 36 minutes with Jokic and Gary Harris off the floor this season. He has now gone over the 15.5 number in five of six games and averaging around 35 minutes per game.
Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns (-7)
Total: 224
One prop that has stood out to me this season has been Chris Paul’s assists. With Phoenix implied 116 points this evening, they are at an implied number in which Paul has generally gone over 8.5 assists when they eclipse 115 points. We have Paul projected for 8.8, which doesn’t leave a ton of cushion, but with the Pacers on a back-to-back I’m siding with the Suns offensively here. Paul will be a reason for that with his facilitating.
