NBA Betting Breakdown: July 3

The FTN NBA betting breakdown is a new article series we are featuring this year on FTNBets where we will have a daily breakdown of the day’s NBA betting slate. This breakdown will feature key injury news and updates and how players and teams are affected by said news to give you the opportunity to potentially jump on some lines.

Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET Saturday after the Bucks took a 3-2 series lead Thursday without Giannis Antetokounmpo active. With him doubtful once again, the big news will come down to the status of the Hawks’ Trae Young, who sits as a game-time decision as of Saturday morning.

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Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks (-1.5), total: 217.0

The spread

The Hawks come in favored across the board in this game, as their spread runs anywhere from -1.5 to -2.0 among all books. This is clearly another instance of books relying on home-court advantage to determine a line, as the Bucks simply looked like the more dominant team with each team missing its superstar in Game 5. While I do think Trae Young suits up, it’s very clear that if he does, he’ll be operating at far less than 100%. For that reason, if betting on the spread, I like the value of getting the Bucks with the points. That said, I want to wait to see if Young gets ruled in because once he potentially gets ruled in, we could see the spread balloon a bit in favor of the Hawks.

The total

Through five games, we’ve seen totals of 229, 216, 215, 198 and 235 points. While the spread at 217 feels appropriate for how the playoffs have been played as a whole, it does feel a couple of points low for the upside that this specific series has shown. The Bucks were able to put up 123 points in Game 5 while still making less than 10 threes (for the eighth time this postseason), symbolizing how high the ceiling is if things click as they did in the regular season. This is a total that I’ll choose to stay away from, but if forced to bet, I’d be on the over.

Top props

Bobby Portis over 25.5 points and rebounds (-115, BetMGM): Portis was the star of the show in Game 5, and while it’s hard to not get clouded by the performance we saw, he shot 20 field goals with 15 rebounding chances. It’s going to be incredibly difficult for him not to soar over on this prop, especially if he repeats the fact that he led the Bucks in usage rate (25.3%) in Game 5.

Bogdan Bogdanovic over 3.5 3-Pointers made (-110, BetMGM): Bogdanovic hasn’t been shooting with a ton of efficiency, but volume trumps all at the end of the day and he’s attempted 30 total threes over the last two games. Even if Young makes his return, Bogdanovic should still pick up the slack on offense with the point guard at less than 100% and could have less defensive attention on him if that becomes the case.

P.J. Tucker over 6.5 rebounds (+110, William Hill): Plus-money here is a gift, as Tucker led the Bucks in Game 5 with 18 rebounding chances in his 38 minutes and turned them into 11 total rebounds. With Giannis Antetokounmpo likely out again, he’ll have much more room to box out in the paint and with the increase in minutes, this feels like a very valuable prop.