NBA betting breakdown (Jan. 19)

The FTN Betting Breakdown is a new article series we are featuring this year on FTNBets where we will have a daily breakdown of the day’s NBA betting slate. This breakdown will feature key injury news and updates and how players and teams are affected by said news to give you the opportunity to potentially jump on some lines. 

(New to FTNBets.com? We have a ton of great NBA content and tools. Find our expert picks in Bet Tracker. The Prop Shop, Parlay Calculator and NBA Odds are all free tools to use to help you find the possible odds for your action. Check out Advanced DvP and our NBA Splits tools when trying to measure impacts of NBA news.)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets (-9.5)

Total: 220.5

Key injuries

OKC: Al Horford OUT
DEN: Michael Porter OUT

Both teams have struggled defensively to start the year, with the Thunder 18th in defensive rating and the Nuggets 25th. The Nuggets also rank 25th in pace while the Thunder are tied for 11th. Overall, this is a decent game environment for production as both teams have struggled with defensive efficiency. Although a small sample size, the Thunder’s defense has regressed in games Al Horford has not played with a 115.71 defensive rating, which would rank 29th in the NBA. Picking sides in the NBA has been strange in this COVID-19 season as no fans has not really made much of an impact for visiting teams. That said, I’m interested in the Nuggets -9.5 as from a talent perspective this is a mismatch that I would cap as a 12-point spread. I also have some interest in the total of 220.5 as the Nuggets play minimal defense and I’m not sure how OKC is able to contain Jokic with Isaiah Roby and Mike Muscala. 

Nikola Jokic is +175 to record a triple-double and opens at 24.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists with his assists over heavily juiced. Jokic should dominate the glass when in the low post, but his biggest risk to rebounding production stems from the fact Roby and Muscala are perimeter offensive players which pushes him further away from the rim defensively. With that line of thinking, Jamal Murray over 4.5 rebounds at plus-money is an intriguing bet even though I have Murray projected for just slightly over that at 5 rebounds. 

On the OKC side, my main focus on the prop market stems from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Nuggets rank 29th vs. Scorers and 21st vs. Primary Ball-Handlers (per advanced DvP), making this a strong environment. Shai is listed at 19.5 points on BetMGM with minimal juice on the over (-111). Across most books, Shai’s juice on the over is -125 and higher. I have Shai projected for 22 points. Although his production has diminished of late, Darius Bazley’s rebound prop is listed at 6.5, -110 on the over on FanDuel Sportsbook. Other books are offering 7.5 at +140 on the over. With OKC centers likely focused on boxing out Jokic, this should lead to more rebounding opportunities for Bazley. 

New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz (-6)

Total: 217.5

Key injuries

NOP: Lonzo Ball PROB
UTA: Joe Ingles QUEST, Derrick Favors PROB 

The Pelicans appear to be back at full strength with Ball likely to play. Utah has been great defensively to start the year, ranking sixth while New Orleans has been mediocre ranking 17th. With the Pelicans ranking 26th in pace and Utah 24th in pace, I don’t want any part of the spread but do have some interest in taking the under. Both teams play at a slow pace and Utah’s defensive efficiency should lead to a less efficient Pelicans offense. 

I don’t love chasing unders on star players but because I worry about this game environment and Rudy Gobert’s impact around the rim, I am quite interested on Zion’s under 22.5. While I have similar concerns with Ingram, he does most of his scoring from the perimeter, so Gobert’s effect is less of a concern. 

A strong positive for chasing Gobert’s over 12.5 rebounds is that he is matched up against Steven Adams meaning he will be around the rim a lot defensively. Considering the efficiency decrease we should see from New Orleans because of Utah’s stout defense, in theory should lead to more rebounding opportunities for Gobert. It is worth noting that New Orleans has defended Rebounders fairly well, ranking 11th in advanced DvP. Still, we are getting minimal juice on the over in a spot where I expect more rebounding opportunities for Gobert where I have him projected for 14.