NBA Best Futures Bets (2/19)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! NBA All-Star Weekend is over and players get a few days of rest before the final stretch of the season. Every team has played at least 54 games, which means we are almost 66% of the way through the season. With less than 30 games left, teams are in their final push to get into the playoffs, get the best seeding possible or make sure they have the best odds in the NBA Draft Lottery. 

Teams have had a week off to rest, recover, and implement any changes to their offensive and/or defensive schemes. This is a great time to look at the futures markets to see how bets we made earlier in the year are doing. We can also make other wagers to balance our portfolios, or even find value on something we haven’t bet yet. Let’s go through award, division, conference and championship odds and see where things stand.

NBA Awards Markets

Most Valuable Player

So, can anyone beat Nikola Jokic? He’s the favorite at a price of -140, and I think that’s fair. Jokic continues to put up the best numbers in the league, and Denver is in competition for the top seed in the Western Conference. I see three other players who might be able to beat Jokic, and one long shot who’s worth a small bet. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is +210 and could win if the Thunder can get the No. 1 seed and SGA has a few eye-popping games. Giannis Antetokounmpo is +800 and could win if he can drag the Bucks up to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and have a few eye-popping performances himself. Luka Doncic is +1000 and can win if the Mavericks can lock up a home playoff series. Now, pretty much all of that depends on Jokic fading to end the season as he rests up for the playoffs. That requirement combined with the scenarios I laid out for each of those other players is too unlikely to bet on them. 

However, there is another player who is unlikely to win but worth a bet. May I present for your consideration Kawhi Leonard, who is priced at +10000(100 to 1) to be the MVP. Again, I think this is a losing bet, but the break-even probability at this price is just under 1%, and there’s a much better chance of him winning than 1%. Leonard is having one of the best seasons of his career and is leading the Los Angeles Clippers, who have been arguably the best team in the league since January. Kawhi is averaging 24 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists per game while shooting 53% from the field and 45% from three. The averages could be higher, but that’s great efficiency, and Leonard is also a great defender. If he can stay healthy and have a few big games while the Clippers grab the top seed in the Western Conference, then he will be a top candidate for MVP. I’m going to make a small bet on Kawhi.

Rookie of the Year

The odds have moved sharply in favor of Victor Wembanyama over the last week or so. Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren were priced very closely, with Holmgren even being a small favorite for a short time. Per-game averages and highlight plays favor the Spurs’ top draft pick, but efficiency and defensive stats favor the Thunder’s starting center. 

There is also the overall impression that Wembanyama is poised to become one of the greatest players in NBA history, and although Holmgren is a key piece driving the Thunder to a shot at the top seed in the Western Conference, he is not poised to be an all-time great. I think Wembanyama should be favored, but not as much as the -600 pricing we’re seeing. I’m going to get myself some Holmgren to be the Rookie of the Year and hope he continues to play great basketball for a winning team while Wembanyama loses game after game and possibly rests at the end of the season.

Most Improved Player

Tyrese Maxey opened before the season at +2500 and better to win this award, was bet down to +1000 or worse by the first game and then peaked at -700 about a month ago. Maxey is now -200 and falling. The 76ers are missing Joel Embiid, and a few other key players and have struggled to win games. If Philadelphia continues to be a losing team, Maxey is going to lose this award. He made an all-star team and has increased all of his per-game averages, but voters seem to be looking at other names when you listen to shows or read articles. 

Coby White, priced at +400, and Jonathan Kuminga, +800, have been flying up the board, while Alperen Sengun has held around +800 for months. I do think Maxey holds on and wins this in a close finish, but I’m certainly not betting on him at -200. At the same time, the prices on White and Kuminga just aren’t good enough for me to bet. If you have some Maxey bets in your pocket, then consider wagers on White and Kuminga to cover your amount at risk, but I can’t advise any bets if you don’t already have a position in this market.

Sixth Man of the Year

This award is usually given to a player on a great team who comes off the bench to score a lot of points. There is not a player this season who fits the description exactly. Malik Monk is the favorite at -115 and scores a lot of points off the bench, but the Sacramento Kings are just the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and could finish lower than that. 

Tim Hardaway is second at +180 and also scores a lot of points off the bench, but the Dallas Mavericks are just the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. There is a big gap after those two players before getting to Norman Powell, priced at +950, and then another gap before getting to Caris LeVert, +1900, followed by everyone else at +3000 or higher. Powell and LeVert are playing good basketball for teams with a chance to finish with a top-two seed, but neither are scoring more than 14 points per game, and historically the winner is closer to 18 points per game. There’s just no good options here for voters or bettors.

Defensive Player of the Year

Congratulations to Rudy Gobert for winning the 2024 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award! Short of an “Act of God” type event, Gobert is going to win this award. He is the best defensive player on the team with the best defensive rating in the entire NBA by more than 2 points. Although I see this as essentially a certainty, I’m not betting anything at -700 in a market decided by voters/judges with more than a few months before the votes are due.

Clutch Player of the Year

This award was intended to go to a player who “best comes through for his teammates in the clutch” in the regular season. I guess that’s as simple as whoever scores the most clutch points wins, but it’s hard to know when we have no voting history to reference. This is the second year this award has been given. De’Aaron Fox won last year over two other finalists, Jimmy Butler and DeMar DeRozan. The three finalists ranked first, second and third in clutch scoring last season, and to no surprise, Fox was first in clutch scoring. This season, Stephen Curry has 165 clutch points scored, which is best in the league and 57 points more than DeMar Derozan, who is second in clutch points scored this season. Maybe in seasons to come the voters will get more nuanced, but for now it seems like this is Steph’s award to lose. He’s -150 to win, and that could be cheap, but I’m not interested in laying that price on a bet that won’t cash for months and is subject to potential injury issues. Curry probably wins, but I’m not betting on it.

Coach of the Year

The market has tightened up for Coach of the Year. Mark Daigneault and Chris Finch have been the top-two favorites for most of the season, but their odds have increased, while J.B. Bickerstaff and Tyronn Lue have seen their prices drop. Daigneault is +190, Finch is +250, Bickerstaff is +410 and Lue is +650. The combined break-even probabilities of those four coaches is 96%, which is the market telling us it’s going to be one of those four, and I agree. This is a pretty close race, and how each team finishes the season will decide things. I realize that’s lame to say, but it’s the truth. If Daigneault, Finch or Lue can get their team to finish as the top seed in the Western Conference, I think they win this award. Bickerstaff has a chance if he can get the Cavaliers to finish as the second seed in the Eastern Conference, but Cleveland has almost no chance to catch Boston for the top seed. If you have a Daigneault or Finch ticket from before the season, then I would suggest you at least cover your stake with a bet on Lue and Bickerstaff. This is a good time to use all the equity you already have to re-enter the market and give yourself a chance to net a profit if a few coaches can win. If you don’t have a ticket on any of the four coaches I mentioned, then I don’t see any value in making a bet at this point. 

Bets

• 0.25U on Kawhi Leonard to win MVP (+10000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
• 0.5U on Chet Holgren to win Rookie of the Year (+500, FanDuel)

Division Odds

Atlantic Division

Congratulations to the Boston Celtics, who have a 10-game lead in this division with less than 30 games to play. I can only hope that typing that sentence somehow leads to the greatest division downfall in NBA history, but that seems unlikely. Boston is -20000 and deserves to be.

Central Division

After winning 18 of their last 20 games, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 2.5-game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks. The Cavaliers have an easier schedule the rest of the season and are not trying to adjust to a new coach. Cleveland is -450 to win the Central, and Milwaukee is +300. The Bucks could find their form after the All-Star break and rip through the end of the season, but I’m not betting on it even though I have some Cavaliers to win this division from before the season at +250 in my pocket. If you also have a Cleveland to win the Central ticket in your pocket, there’s no harm in putting a bet on the Bucks at +300 to guarantee yourself a profit, but I’m letting my bet on the Cavaliers ride.

Southeast Division

The Miami Heat and Orlando Magic are tied atop the Southeast Division with the Atlanta Hawks six games back. The Heat are -155 and Magic +110 in what is effectively a two-team race. Those prices look right to me. Miami has the better, albeit less healthy roster, the easier schedule the rest of the way and the tiebreaker over Orlando. The Magic are a very good team and could pass the Heat in the standings, but it’s not worth betting on at only +110. These prices are good. Stay put.

Southwest Division

This is another two-team race with the New Orleans Pelicans currently holding a one-game lead over the Dallas Mavericks. They are 2-2 in their four games played this season so no one holds the top tiebreaker. The Pelicans are -210 and Mavericks +140, which I believe is mostly based on how easy the schedule is for New Orleans to finish the season. The Pelicans also have a deeper roster that is built better to handle injuries. The Mavericks’ success hinges greatly on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. If either were to miss a handful of games, it could easily be enough to lose the division. The Pelicans are too expensive and the Mavericks too cheap, so we can’t bet on either.

Pacific Division

The Los Angeles Clippers have a four-game lead over the Phoenix Suns and a 5.5-game lead over the Sacramento Kings. This isn’t a complete lock, but we’re about close as you get to a lock. The Clippers are likely the favorite in every game they play the rest of the season. With Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden and a very deep bench, Los Angeles can survive the impact of injury should any occur. The Clippers are -2500, and I could make a case they should be even a bigger favorite, but as I’ve said a few times before, I’m not laying this kind of price in a market that ties up bankroll for a few months.

Northwest Division

The Minnesota Timberwolves are priced at -110 with a 1.5-game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder and a three-game lead over the Denver Nuggets. There are three games between the Nuggets and Timberwolves, OKC has the tiebreaker over Denver and the Thunder split their four games with the Timberwolves. Denver is +350, and I’d consider betting that if I knew the Nuggets would push hard to win the division. Those three games against Minnesota give them a great chance to close the gap, but Denver is more focused on keeping everyone healthy and fresh for the playoffs. The Nuggets know the value of home-court advantage but also the cost of missing a key player. The Thunder are +200, and I think that price is worth a wager. OKC has more road games than Minnesota left, but overall I think they have an easier schedule and will be playing as hard as they can. I’d price this closer, so give me a bet on the Thunder to win this division.

Bets

1U on the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Northwest Division (+200, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Conference Champion Odds

Eastern Conference

The Boston Celtics are the favorite at +115, and rightfully so. The Celtics are likely to have the best record in the league, which will give them home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Boston also has arguably the best roster in the league and the depth to win even if a key player is lost to injury. Their peak potential requires everyone, especially Kristaps Porzingis, to be available, but they are the best team in the conference. That doesn’t mean they can’t be beaten in the playoffs by the Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks or Miami Heat, but that does mean we should wait until the postseason to consider betting against Boston. There’s so much uncertainty with every other team in the East. The Bucks are still figuring out how to play well together with a new coach. The Knicks are dealing with a lot of injuries and may not have the star power needed. Joel Embiid might be healthy, or he might not be. The Heat aren’t even locked into the postseason yet. They are the No. 7 seed and would have to win in the Play-In Tournament. We’re going to do better waiting and betting these teams in individual series with more information. So, no bets for now, but be sure to watch carefully to see which of these squads you think can take down the Celtics in April or May.

Western Conference

The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are the two best teams in the conference, and to no surprise, they are priced closely as the two favorites to win the West. The Nuggets are priced around +225 and the Clippers around +240. We’ll get better value betting them series to series than we would betting them now at those prices. Based on the way the market looks now, these two will be priced close to a pick’em if they meet in the playoffs. It’s best to wait and pick the team you like the best at that point. For some reason, the Phoenix Suns are the third favorite at +700. That’s a terrible price and you should not bet it. The Suns have the star talent, but they are too bad defensively to win three consecutive playoff series. That leaves the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder at around +850 each. I could see either getting to the Western Conference finals, but they lack expectations in the playoffs and will struggle to beat either the Nuggets or Clippers. If you like one of those teams better than the other, then bet the Northwest Division like we did. Any other team in the Western Conference is not locked into the postseason, so we can’t back them either. There’s nothing of value here.

Bets

None

NBA Champion Odds

There is one bet I’ve made in this market, and I’ve made it several times. I bet the Denver Nuggets +450 to win the title before the season started and at +550 about six weeks into the season. Nikola Jokic is the best player in the NBA, Jamal Murray and Jokic are the best top-two combo in the league and Denver knows better than any other team what it takes to win four consecutive playoff series. The Nuggets avoid the Boston Celtics as long as possible, and I make that series very close with the difference being the Celtics’ home-court advantage. I have Denver favored over every team in the Western Conference in a significant way besides the Clippers, and I still have the Nuggets favored even if they don’t have home court in their favor. I continue to be surprised that Denver has moved closer to Boston in the range of +290 and think there’s value on the Nuggets at +450 which we can bet now.

The Celtics can win the championship, and I think the market has priced them well, but that means I’m not betting on them. Boston is in the easier conference and has a great roster with postseason experience, but I still have concerns about their coaching staff and their ability to score late in tight games. The Clippers can win it all, but I’m not sure whether things can hold together that long. James Harden generally gets worse later in the season from all the wear and tear. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are regulars on the injury report. Even if everyone is healthy and playing well, I don’t think they will beat the Denver Nuggets. Milwaukee and Phoenix are too flawed to trust, and every other team lacks the high-level talent or experience needed to win 16 games in the postseason. It’s just the Nuggets for us.

Bets

1U on the Denver Nuggets to win the NBA Championship (+450, BetMGM) if you haven’t already bet on this.