Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s not over yet! Okay, it might be over soon, but let’s try to just enjoy one more NBA basketball game before it’s suddenly July and all there is to watch at night is baseball. It was tremendous to see Luka Doncic respond so positively to about 48 hours of being ripped by Brian Windhorst and others. Doncic has played in a lot of big games in his life already but is still just 25 years old and experiencing his first NBA Finals. Players respond to that kind of pressure differently, and it’s good to see Luka rise to the challenge.
Can he do it again? Maybe the Mavericks found a way to solve the puzzle now that Kristaps Porzingis has been taken off the board. Maybe the Celtics got a little distracted trying to plan a potential championship celebration in Dallas. What is certain is that the Mavericks kicked butt last game, and the Celtics have to be at least a little scared of what could happen if they play poorly tonight and have to go back to Dallas for Game 6. It should be fun, so let’s see how the odds have moved and find some value to bet. Of course, be sure to join the FTN team and myself for a live watch party tonight. We’ll be on Playback where we can show the game, share our live bets and get you involved in the conversation. For now, on to the hoops!
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics
Current Line – Celtics -6.5, 210.5
My Projection – Celtics 109, Mavericks 103
Key Injuries – Kristaps Porzingis is questionable
The Dallas Mavericks absolutely crushed the Boston Celtics in Game 4. In oddly symmetrical fashion, the Mavericks won the first two quarters by 13 points each and the final two quarters by six points each. Their defense led the way and held the Celtics to 36% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from beyond the three-point arc. Dallas dominated the possession battle and created 14 more opportunities by having nine more offensive rebounds and five less turnovers than Boston. The only bad thing you could say about the Mavericks’ performance is that Doncic and Kyrie Irving shot a combined 1-for-14 from three. Luckily, their teammates shot 14-for-23 from three to bring the team up to 40% shooting from beyond the arc. Porzingis was unable to play and is obviously key for the Celtics. That said, their issues in Game 4 went beyond anything KP could have done to close the gap entirely.
Game 4 closed with Boston favored by 1.5 points, although some spots had the Mavericks -1 or a pick-em, and the total closed at 211.5. Tonight’s line has the Celtics favored by 6.5 points and the total at 210.5 The total has ticked down a point or two with each game, and that continues. As a series progresses, pace tends to slow as high-leverage possessions run deeper into the shot clock. The spread has moved about 8-9 points depending on what closing number you recognize. That is roughly the same adjustment we saw from Game 2 to Game 3 when the series moved from Boston to Dallas, which tells me the books don’t expect Porzingis to miss his third consecutive game. In general, the market and I are in line with how to price the full game spread and total for this game.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” – T. Bert Lance, May 1977
With that in mind, I don’t see value in betting the spread or total tonight. This late in the season, books have enough information and betting history to keep those numbers sharp. Luckily, they offer us a list of derivative markets that are easier to attack. Jayson Tatum is averaging 24.7 points per game in the postseason, 20 points per game in this series, and the FTN model has him projected to score 25.58 points tonight. Once again, books are hanging his point total at 27.5 points, and once again I will be betting Tatum to go under that number. He’s been forced to match up against bigger players, which has forced him to be more of a rebounder and facilitator than a scorer. This has been a good bet all postseason, and I think it’s a good bet again tonight.
Best Bet
Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)
