NBA Best Bets Of The Day (5/30)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We were in serious danger of not having a single NBA basketball game to watch for a whole week. I know the season will eventually end, but I wasn’t ready for that long of a break yet. Thankfully, the Timberwolves were able to upset the Mavericks in Dallas to give us a game Thursday.

No team has ever overcome a deficit of three games to none in a series, but the Timberwolves are going to try their best to make history. They have to win three games in a row to get to the NBA Finals, and if they lose even one they are done for the season. That should create pressure and a raucous environment for Thursday’s game, which you can along with me and the FTN crew on Playback. Join us to get some live bets, be part of our conversation, and even stream the game if you don’t already have access yourself.

Be sure to check that out, but for now, let’s go through this matchup, see how the series have gone, and try to find some value in the betting markets.

NBA Best Bets for Thursday

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves

Current Line – Timberwolves -4.5, 209.5
My Projection – Timberwolves 108, Mavericks 102
Key Injuries – Luka Doncic, Dereck Lively II and Mike Conley are questionable.

The Timberwolves were able to get their first win of the series and extend their season for at least another game. Minnesota had one of their best shooting performances of the season, didn’t lose the fourth quarter for the first time this series, and beat the Mavericks by five points to force Game 5. Dallas shot poorly and missed Dereck Lively II, who couldn’t play. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington are the top three scorers on the team in the playoffs, and they combined to shoot 16-of-52 (30.7%) from the field. Minnesota’s defense deserves some credit for that poor shooting performance, but Dallas will regress to their season averages sooner rather than later. It was another close game in a matchup where the teams are separated by just eight points in total through the first four games. Can the Mavericks get back to making big shots in the fourth quarter to win games late or will the Timberwolves carry momentum into their home arena and force a Game 6? We’ll find out in what should be an exciting Game 5.

Game 4 closed with Dallas as 1.5-point favorites with the total at 211. The total has been adjusted down to 209.5 for tonight which makes sense given the pace has slowed a little and tends to be slower when the Timberwolves are at home. I’m in line with the market on the total. As for the spread, Thursday’s line is currently Minnesota -4.5 with some 5s starting to appear, which puts us on or close to the Game 1 closing spread of Minnesota -4.5. That means the market expects Lively to play, or that his absence is not meaningful to the number. Lively was available for Game 3, missed Game 4, and the spread closed at the same number for both. That would indicate that the books don’t value Lively enough to move the line which I think is wrong and the reason I show a little bit of value on the Timberwolves tonight. It’s not enough value to bet them for the full game, but there’s another angle I like.

As I’ve written before, these full game lines are very sharp. Books have a season’s worth of data on the team’s and from sharp bettors who have bet numbers into shape all year. That makes it tough to beat the bigger markets, but thankfully we can go further down the board and attack some derivative bets. I think the best way to back the Timberwolves is to do it early in the game, specifically the first quarter. Minnesota has been much better in the first 12 minutes of games in the postseason and especially at home. Dallas tends to struggle in the first quarter, and I expect that dynamic to remain in play here. The Timberwolves need to start well to keep their season alive and I expect them to do just that. I’ll back Minnesota in the first quarter at -1.5 or better.

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