Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA ends its regular season today, on Easter Sunday, with a massive 15-game slate with minimal playoff implications. All playoff teams have been set, but there are still seeding implications for a few matchups that could impact this week’s play-in games.
In a bizarre Friday night twist, the Dallas Mavericks were eliminated from the playoffs by losing at home to the Chicago Bulls, 115-112. That gave the Oklahoma City Thunder the 10th seed in the Western Conference, and a one-game battle against an opponent yet to be determined.
Despite blowing a 17-point first quarter lead the other night, the Golden State Warriors are on the cusp on earning a first-round playoff berth with a win at Portland on Sunday. Golden State would lock up the sixth seed with a win, thus avoiding any involvement in this week’s play-in games.
The Eastern Conference play-in matchups are set, with the No. 7 seed Miami Heat playing the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks, while the No. 9 seed Toronto Raptors will face the No. 10 seed Chicago Bulls.
With roster uncertainty in all other matchups, eight of our 15 games feature point spreads of less than five points. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season, so make sure to find where we project our biggest edges on the NBA’s final Sunday slate.
Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls
Detroit +7.5
(-106, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Pistons have a solid group of young players that should keep this game close. Detroit posted 122 points in a win at Indiana on Friday night, behind 29 points from Jaden Ivey and 28 points from Killian Hayes. Chicago is locked into the 10-seed and only earned a victory at Dallas because the Mavericks were determined to make a “business decision” and avoid the playoffs.
The Bulls will play Wednesday night and will rest all significant players here. Chicago had failed to cover their previous two games prior to the win of the Mavericks and have won all three meetings with the Pistons this season. Detroit should have an interior advantage with Marvin Bagley returning to solidify a front line with Jalen Duren and James Wiseman. I’m backing the Pistons’ youth and the 7.5 points as road underdogs against a Bulls team with no motivation.
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
Milwaukee +3.5
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
One of the most shocking results was the Raptors’ massive loss at Boston on Friday against a Celtics team that rested several players. Toronto was down 68-40 at halftime and allowed the Celtics’ reserves to make 15 three-pointers. Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard combined for 48 points and 10 three-pointers.
Milwaukee’s reserves actually played inspired basketball at home against a Memphis team that needed to win to lock up the No. 2 overall seed in the Western Conference. I expect the Bucks to be competitive once again, especially facing a Raptors team that is notoriously tight on their rotations during competitive games. I don’t trust the inexperienced Raptors here and project this game as a coin flip. The public is currently split on this matchup, but I expect this number to drop as we get closer to tipoff. I’ll grab the feisty Bucks as a small underdog at Toronto.
New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota -3.5
(-110, DraftKings)
This is a battle for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, with the Pelicans leading the Timberwolves by just one game in the standings. The winner of this game would avoid the No. 9 seed, giving the winning team a chance to play into the playoffs with just one victory. The loser would need two wins and would have to play on Tuesday against Oklahoma City.
This is the second night of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, but none of Minnesota’s players exceeded 30 minutes in their easy win over San Antonio. I expect Minnesota to play their starters a significant amount of time, and the Pelicans could start resting players later in the game if they fall behind.
Our model gives Minnesota a slight advantage at -3.5, and I will back the home team in what translates to the final game of the 2022-2023 NBA regular season.
