NBA Best Bets Of The Day (4/22)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! All the Game 1 contests are in the books, and it was a great weekend for the home fans. All eight teams who hosted Game 1 won this weekend, and most won by 10+ points. Maybe home-court advantage is back? Home teams went 7-1 against the spread which may catch your eye, but that is a very small sample size.

Be careful not to overreact to eight games by tailing every home team because they are hot or by fading every home team because road teams are due. Instead of making decisions based on trends from just two days, let’s take our time, go through each game and see where the value is based on what we’ve learned all season and from past postseasons. Of course, since it’s Monday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions about something I missed or bets of your own, leave them in the comments section of that video and I’ll reply there. Now, on to the hoops!

Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Line – Cavaliers -5.5, 203
My Projection – Cavaliers 101, Magic 98
Key Injuries – None

There was no Magic in the Orlando locker room, as the Cavaliers rode out to a big lead in Cleveland and won by 14 points. Bad puns aside, the Cavaliers looked ready for that moment, while the Magic looked like a young team not prepared for a playoff game on the road. Orlando shot 32% from the field, 21% from three-point range and 63% from the free throw line. They looked better in the second half. Was that because the Cavaliers were comfortable holding onto their lead or because the young Magic roster was able to get comfortable and play well? We’ll likely learn the answer to that question tonight. For now, we know that Cleveland is ready to win at home and that Donovan Mitchell looks healthy. Maybe Game 1 showed us how this series is going to go, but I’m reserving judgment to see how Orlando responds.

The Game 1 line closed with the Cavaliers -5.5 and a total of 206.5. The spread tonight is exactly the same, and the total has dropped more than three points. If what we saw in Game 1 is going to continue, this spread should have moved. Since it didn’t, that tells me the market is still unsure if the Cavaliers are as good as they were on Saturday. I said before the series that the total for these games should be just above 200 and not above 205 like we saw in the first matchup. The market responded, but I still think 203 is too high. Both teams play great defense, can keep each other from getting fastbreak points and are happy to grind out games. I make the total 199 and think even that is too high. I bet the under in Game 1 and am betting it again tonight.

Bets

Orlando Magic/Cleveland Cavaliers Under 203 (-112, DraftKings)

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

Current Line – Knicks -6, 205
My Projection – Knicks 104, 76ers 101
Key Injuries – De’Anthony Melton and Julius Randle are out. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are questionable.

Joel Embiid was able to return to play after what looked like another big injury to his left knee. The 76ers were +14 points in Embiid’s 37 minutes and lost the game by seven points. That means Philadelphia was -21 points in the 11 minutes he was on the bench. This has been the dynamic for the 76ers for years, and if it doesn’t change, they will keep losing to the Knicks who played well. New York shot 45% from three on 35 attempts, had 13 more possessions than Philadelphia and had 16 more fastbreak points. That’s how the Knicks have won games all season, and unless the 76ers can figure out some new schemes, the Knicks will win this series quickly.

The spread for Game 1 closed at New York -4.5 points, and the total was 208. Embiid is questionable after finishing Game 1, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a late scratch. We also are unsure of the status of Tyrese Maxey, who was added to the injury report today with an illness. If both are out, the Knicks should be double-digit favorites. If both can play, the spread will close around Knicks -5. There’s just too much uncertainty right now to bet on this game. The market is signaling that they expect Embiid to play, and Maxey might be out based on the current odds. That may be the case, but we just don’t know and therefore cannot yet wager on this game.

Bets – None

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

Current Line – Nuggets -7.5, 224
My Projection – Nuggets 115, Lakers 107
Key Injuries – None

The Lakers looked great in the first quarter of Game 1 of this series and went into halftime with the lead. The Nuggets won the third quarter 32-18 and cruised through the fourth to win by 11 points. That was the ninth time in a row Denver has beaten Los Angeles. Anthony Davis scored 32 points with 14 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 blocks with good shooting splits. The Lakers were -12 when AD was on the floor. LeBron James scored 27 points with 8 assists and 6 rebounds, shooting 62%+ from the field and 60% from beyond the arc. The Lakers were -9 when LeBron was on the floor. The Nuggets starting five all had a positive point differential when on the floor. Jamaal Murray had the lowest of the five at +9 points. Denver is just a nightmare matchup for Los Angeles, and there’s no reason to expect the Nuggets’ win streak over the Lakers to stop anytime soon.

Denver closed as 6.5-point favorites in Game 1 with a total of 227. The market has adjusted that one point in favor of the Nuggets and lowered the total by three points. One point on the spread is a small adjustment, but three points is a meaningful move on the total. The pace was 92, which is even slower than the 94.8 possessions per 48 minutes these teams averaged during the season. Offensive efficiency was good for both teams, but the slow pace of the game kept it 10 points under the total.

I’m pretty close to the market for the full game, but I think there’s value in a derivative market. The Nuggets were the best team against the spread in the first quarter this season. Nikola Jokic plays almost the entire first 12 minutes, and that gives Denver a huge advantage. Jokic gets several minutes against the other team’s backups, who are even less equipped to slow down the odds-on favorite to be MVP this season. The Lakers did win the first quarter of Game 1, but the Nuggets clearly had some rust from the week off before the game. I expect things to get back to normal in Denver with a comfortable lead after the first quarter for the Nuggets.