NBA Best Bets of the Day (4/2)

The last day of the NBA regular season is on April 9, meaning we have just one final week of games before the playoffs begin. Despite most teams having less than five games remaining, only seven have secured playoff berths. Sunday brings us a robust 13-game slate, with a myriad of games directly affecting playoff seeding. 

Only five teams have been officially eliminated from the playoffs, leaving 25 teams battling for 20 playoff spots. The Milwaukee Bucks (East) and Denver Nuggets (West) both lead their respective conferences, but neither has officially locked up the No.1 overall seed. 

Five of today’s 13 games feature point spreads of less than five points, while an additional five games feature spreads of at least 11 points or more. The FTN NBA Betting model has been locked in all season, so make sure to find where we project our biggest edges on the NBA Sunday slate. 

NBA Best Bets

Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks

Dallas +4.5 

(-115, BetMGM)

The Dallas Mavericks have been struggling since adding Kyrie Irving, going just 7-11. However, coming off a 129-122 loss at Miami, they now travel to Atlanta for a favorable matchup against the Hawks. Over the last 10 games, Atlanta carries the fourth-worst defensive rating while allowing the third-most points per game (122.7). The Hawks have been the fourth-worst NBA team ATS this season, including just 17-21 ATS at home. As a home favorite, the Hawks are just 14-17 ATS as well. Even more concerning for Atlanta, they are only 8-12 ATS with a rest advantage this season. 

Dallas is actually 11-10 ATS as an away underdog and will benefit from facing Atlanta guard Trae Young in the midst of a brutal slump. Despite a superb matchup at Brooklyn on Friday, Young was just 3-for-12 from the field including 0-for-5 from 3P range. Over his last two games, Young is just 7-of-27 from the field. 

The Mavericks should be fine in a matchup that carries a high 242.5 game total. Dallas is shooting 38.6% from 3P range over those last 10 games, while making the fourth-most 3P (15.1) over that span. 

Our NBA model gives this an 9.8% edge, making our first pick Mavericks +4.5.

Jalen Brunson Under 27.5 Points 

(-110 FanDuel)

Jalen Brunson was unconscious at Cleveland on Friday Night, posting 48 points on 7-of-12 shooting from 3P range. It was Brunson’s third 40-plus game of the season, and he now faces a much easier opponent at home against Washington. 

Brunson posted two 30-plus games against Washington in January, but those games came against a completely different roster than the Wizards will have on Sunday. Washington will be without Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis. As a result, New York is a substantial 9.5-point favorite. 

Brunson will not need another 30-point performance, and I always like to fade a player off a career-best point total. New York is essentially locked into the fifth-spot in the Eastern Conference, while the Wizards are on the verge of being eliminated. I project minimal resistance from a Washington team that has lost nine of their last 12 overall games, and I don’t see Brunson eclipsing a point total that his monthly average (26.9 PPG) is still under. The Wizards are allowing the seventh-fewest PPG to opposing point guards over their last seven matchups. 

Chris Paul Under 12.5 Points

(-115, PointsBet)

It is surprising to see Chris Paul’s prop at just 12.5 points, especially after beating this number in each of the three prior games against Oklahoma City. Paul has scored 16, 14 and 18 points in three games against the Thunder, but we are projecting him under this total today. Our model has Paul for just 11.38 points, even with the veteran guard averaging 13.5 PPG on the season. 

Paul was at just 12.6 PPG this month and has fallen short of this number in seven of the last 15 games. He is also averaging two fewer minutes per game than his 33.2 MPG average in February. With the playoffs approaching and Kevin Durant now an integral part of the Phoenix offense, I’m betting against his past production against Oklahoma City and backing the under on Paul’s scoring prop.