NBA Best Bets of the Day (4/1)

NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

Russell Westbrook Over 11.5 rebounds + Assists

(-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Russell Westbrook has gone over this number in three straight and six of his last nine games. This is a pace-up spot for the Clippers with a high total and a tight spread. We should see mid-30s minutes for Westbrook and my model projects him for 7.3 assists and 6 rebounds. 

Kawhi Leonard Over 33.5 PRA

(-125, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Kawhi Leonard has really struggled as of late, but considering the Clippers will be without Paul George once again, this is a spot to buy low on a overreaction from a few down games from Kawhi. Kawhi didn’t play in the second half Friday, but he was quickly cleared to play in this game so it sounds like they were just resting him for this one. My model has him for 25 points, 4 assists and 6.5 rebounds.