Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA Prop Betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each players stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
By using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks, we can try to pick out some of the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Fred VanVleet u20.5 Points
VanVleet projects for under 18 points tonight in my model against a Denver team that is 11th in points allowed and 5th in 3PT% allowed. Fred VanVleet did have 25 points last game, but over his last 8 games he has had 17 points or less in 6 of those games, and he is averaging just 17.4 PPG over his last 5 games.
Derrick White o4.5 assists
With no Jayson Tatum in the lineup, Derrick White should step up and get more minutes and usage today. The Celtics are without three of their normal starters, so White should also get a crack at the starting lineup tonight against Cleveland. My model projects White for 6.34 assists tonight.
Aaron Gordon o2.5 Assists
Aaron Gordon has been extremely productive in the assists category lately, he has at least 3 assists in 9 of his last 10 games, and is averaging over 4 assists in his last 10 games. My model projects Gordon for 3.67 assists in this matchup, as the Raptors are 24th in assists allowed.
