Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Thursday is a bit of a quiet night in the NBA after two days of big slates. We have just four NBA games to look at tonight and not a ton of edges. We had a few in our FTN NBA Player Prop tool and one that I liked in the FTN NBA betting model. We may see more edges later when all of the player props are released along with injury news, so make sure to get over to FTN Bets Discord and check for breaking news. For now, here are my three NBA best bets for Thursday.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets
Myles Turner Over 19.5
I do not love the juice here, but this number is 20.5 -110 or -115 on many other books. Myles Turner draws one of the best matchups against a Spurs team that allows the most points per 10 possessions to their opponent. This is also the game with the highest projected pace on the day, so that should be a few more possessions against a soft defense. Turner has gone for 20 or more in 10 of the last 14 games, including each of the last three. He dropped 40 against the Celtics last week and has not scored below 17 in any of the last five games.
Fred VanVleet Under 18.5 Points
This is a softer matchup than the last one was, but Fred VanVleet still is not back to his peak performance. He had one of his worst games this season with just three points. He did contribute in other ways with 9 assists and 6 rebounds. VanVleet has now failed to reach 18 points in five of his last six games and they only dropped his prop number from 19.5 last game to 18.5 today. Until he has a breakout game, I see no reason to stop betting against this elevated number.
Best NBA Total Bet
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Under 224
These are two very pedestrian offenses. Both rank middle of the pack on the season. Both are also playing worse offensively than they have on the whole of the season. Over the last two weeks both are in the bottom ten for points per 100 possessions. Toronto is a very good defense team too, which should also help depress the scoring. Finally, these two teams are both in the bottom half of the league for pace as well, which is another reason I am not expecting a ton of scoring here.
