NBA Best Bets of the Day (3/13)

NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

Killian Hayes o8.5 assists 

(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Killian Hayes finds himself in a great matchup against the Pacers, who are 7th in pace and 26th in defense, while also allowing the 26th most points and 27th assists per game. With Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks and Cade Cunningham all sidelined (among others), Hayes should see plenty of usage. My model has him projected for over 10 assists. 

Walker Kessler o9.5 rebounds 

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is not the greatest matchup, although the Heat are 16th in rebounds allowed, so Walker Kessler can still find some success here, but this play is more about the line being too low. I think you could make a case that this line could be set at 10.5 or 11.5. He has at least 10 rebounds in nine of his last 10 games and at least 11 rebounds in seven of his last 10. My model has him for just shy of 12 rebounds tonight. 

Kyle Anderson o4.5 assists 

(-104, FanDuel)

Surprised to see this bet here? Well, with my name being on this article, you probably shouldn’t be. I’m not sure there has been a game Kyle Anderson has played the last month or so where I haven’t taken his over on assists. He went through a bit of a skid, but last game we saw his upside when he had 11 assists. He now has at least five assists in six of his last nine, while averaging 5.5 APG over his last 10 games.