Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Lauri Markkanen Over 29.5 Points
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lauri Markkanen gets a great matchup against Charlotte with Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson remaining out. This should open up plenty of opportunity for Markkanen to be the No. 1 option early and often. My model has him for 33.67 points.
Brook Lopez Over 17.5 Points
(-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Book Lopez has at least 24 points in three of his last four games, as he continues to benefit from Giannis Antetokounmpo being out. He now gets a matchup against the Warriors, who rank 25th in points allowed. My model has Lopez for north of 21 points .
Jalen Williams Over 17.5 Points + Assists
(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jalen Williams has been out the last two games, but prior to that he was on an absolute tear, as he scored at least 20 points in five of his last six games. Additionally, he’s had at least 4 assists in six straight. A lot of that production was with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, so that explains why the line is so low, but I think the line just overcorrected. My model has Williams for 17 points alone, adding 4 assists.
