Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The good news is that we have a lot of NBA games on Wednesday’s slate. The bad news is that many of them have sizable spreads. I am always a little worried about betting overs on either side of a game with a spread of three possessions or more. You have potential blowout risk, as well as the potential that one team takes their foot off the gas late in the game to kill clock and none of that is positive for betting overs.
You will notice a lot of unders in our FTN Player Prop model Wednesday, and that is why two of the day’s three NBA best bets are unders.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets
RJ Barrett Under 17.5 Points
RJ Barrett has only topped 30 minutes in one of his last five games. He’s also topped 17.5 points just one time in his last five. Guys like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are playing 35 minutes a night or more still, so Barrett is the only one seeing a decline in playing time. He averages 34 minutes per night on the season, so the fact he’s seen under 30 in four of the last five games is a big deal. It is something that should continue to keep him under his seasonal averages.
Mark Williams Over 12.5 Points
Mark Williams has picked up the scoring recently to coincide with his bump in minutes. P.J. Washington is doubtful, so we should continue to get about 30 minutes from Williams. Williams has averaged 13.6 points per game over his last five. He’s had 12 or more in four of those five. This number opened at 11.5, and the over was bet up to at least -130 or beyond everywhere it is still at 11.5. I took the FD number at 12.5, because it was the only one at plus money.
Desmond Bane Under 20.5 Points
Let me start by saying I am a fan of Desmond Bane and think he is very underrated. I know that is a weird way to start discussing a bet on his under, but it does show you why the number is so high. Bane has topped 21 points in just two of his last seven games. This is a super soft matchup, but it is also one with a double-digit spread and his team on the tail end of a back-to-back. He could see less minutes due to a blowout. His coach could give him a few more minutes of rest on the tail end here too. Add the lack of upside in the scoring department lately to all the potential pitfalls for playing time and you end up with more routes to him coming in under 21 points than going over it.
