Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Eric Gordon o17.5 Points + Assists
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Eric Gordon has now scored 24+ points in three straight games, while also adding 15 assists in that time, yet we get a line set at just 17.5 points+assists. Jalen Green was out for the three previous games that Gordon played, and he definitely will take a large portion of the offense back, but Gordon still has an 18% usage rate with Green on the floor and Kevin Porter off. This number also goes up to 24% when you remove the qualification of having Green on the floor, meaning Gordon should see a very extended role in this offense in any minutes he gets with Green off the floor. Even when setting his usage rate to 18%, my model still projects Gordon for 16.5 points and 3.5 assists.
Kawhi Leonard o26.5 Points
(-110, BetMGM)
We are starting to see a bit of old Kawhi Leonard rounding back into form. He has now scored 27+ points in eight of his last 10 games and will now get to play against the Nets, who will be rolling out a shell of themselves after the Kyrie Irving trade.
Nic Claxton o16.5 Points
(+100, DraftKings)
Big fan of this number at plus-money considering my model currently projects him for over 19 points. We have seen the strides he has taken offensively with no Kevin Durant, and there’s a good chance he’s asked to take on more with no Kyrie Irving as well. I am a bit concerned about what his role looks like without some key facilitators on the team, but he should have the opportunities as well as plenty of minutes on the floor tonight.
