NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Spencer Dinwiddie Over 33.5 Points + Assists
(-122, FanDuel Sportsbook)
With no Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie has been quick to show his capabilities as the team’s lead scorer. In the two games Luka missed last week, Dinwiddie scored at least 35 points in each, also adding at least 8 assists. My model projects Dinwiddie for 30-plus points and 8-plus assists again in this spot against the Warriors, who are playing at the fastest pace in the NBA right now.
Damian Lillard Over 41.5 Points + Assists
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
41.5 is a big number here, but we all know by now how many points Damian Lillard is capable of scoring on a good night, as he has at least 42 points in three of his last five games, including a 60-point showing a few games ago against the Jazz. He now gets a matchup against the Bulls, who are solid defensively as a whole, but they are weak against shooters and passers, which is exactly what Dame is. The Bulls rank 23rd in threes allowed, while also allowing the 26th-most assists to opposing teams.
Mikal Bridges Over 19.5 Points
(-122, FanDuel Sportsbook)
We took the over on Mikal Bridges’ PRA Friday, and he nearly got there on points alone as he scored 25 points. He now has at least 20 points in four straight and eight of his last 10 games. This Detroit team is a great matchup as they rank 29th in points allowed and FG%. My model has Bridges for over 24 points.
