Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Mitchell Robinson o8.5 Rebounds
(-120, DraftKings)
This hit with ease last time I was on the article, and I’m going right back to it here. My model projects Mitchell Robinson for over 11 rebounds, and this is a solid matchup as Boston allowed the sixth-most rebounds to opposing teams this season. Robinson has posted games of 12 and 13 rebounds in his first two games back from injury. He has a very high rebounds ceiling when the minutes are there, and considering he has played 28 minutes in both of his last two games, I am feeling pretty confident about projecting him for that again barring foul trouble.
Because of his ceiling, I also like laddering this up to 14 rebounds. He is +300 for 12+ rebounds and +700 for 14+ on FanDuel. This won’t be my only ladder play today, as it is officially ladder SZN.
Derrick White o3.5 Assists
(-140, DraftKings)
Derrick White flourished with Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown out over the last week or so before the All-Star break. Although Smart is back in the lineup, Brown has been ruled out for this one. That should lead to not only more usage for White, but also more minutes. My model has White for over six assists in about 34 minutes.
This is another ladder opportunity for me, I like playing White up to 8+ assists. Before the All-Star break (and the return of Brown), White had 6+ assists in five of six games, including three straight games with 10+ assists. White is +270 for 6+ assists and +800 for 8+ assists on FanDuel.
Gordon Hayward o16.5 Points
(-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Well, let’s just make it a clean sweep and have three plays with ladder opportunities. What a Monday. Gordon Hayward projects for over 21 points in my model. Over his last five games, Hayward is averaging 22.2 PPG and a 24% usage rate. He now gets a matchup against Detroit which ranks 29th in points allowed, 28th in FG% allowed and 27th in free throws allowed. Hayward is +165 to score 20+ points, and +550 to score 25+ points on FanDuel. Ladder SZN is in full swing.
